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Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles

This paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank-dependent expected utility. This RDU assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism/optimism of the agent. The results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles, when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles. Moreover, under pessimism, the RDU assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria. The RDU assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the (absence of) Pareto-optimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles. These conditions still govern the existence of bubbles.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12005.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12005.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12005
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  1. Demange, G. & Laroque, G., 1996. "Social Security and Demographic Shocks," DELTA Working Papers 96-04, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  2. Noriyuki Yanagawa & Gene M. Grossman, 1992. "Asset Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 4004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2009. "Bubbly Liquidity," IDEI Working Papers 577, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Feb 2011.
  4. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  5. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "On Rational Exuberance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00367689, HAL.
  7. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
  8. Weil, Philippe, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22, February.
  9. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  10. Zilcha, Itzhak, 1991. "Characterizing efficiency in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, October.
  11. Gottardi, Piero, 1996. "Stationary Monetary Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 75-89, October.
  12. Tallon, J-M, 1996. "Risque microeconomique et prix d'actifs dans un modele d'equilibre general avec esperance d'utilite dependante du rang," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 96.94, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  13. Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  15. Dow, James & da Costa Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro, 1992. "Excess volatility of stock prices and Knightian uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 631-638, April.
  16. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2006. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1159-1192, September.
  18. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  19. Wang Yong, 1993. "Stationary Equilibria in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Stochastic Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 423-435, December.
  20. Peled, Dan, 1984. "Stationary pareto optimality of stochastic asset equilibria with overlapping generations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 396-403, December.
  21. Rao Aiyagari, S. & Peled, Dan, 1991. "Dominant root characterization of Pareto optimality and the existence of optimal equilibria in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 69-83, June.
  22. Olivier J. Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8607, Sciences Po.
  23. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
  24. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  25. Olivier, Jacques, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 133-51, February.
  26. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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  28. Homburg, Stefan, 1992. "Efficient Economic Growth," EconStor Books, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, number 92903.
  29. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8607 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521806428 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
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