IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

More hedging instruments may destabilize markets

  • Brock, W.A.
  • Hommes, C.H.
  • Wagener, F.O.O.

This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders have heterogeneous expectations and adapt their behavior according to performance-based reinforcement learning. In a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs the introduction of additional Arrow securities may destabilize markets, and thus increase price volatility, and at the same time decrease average welfare. We also investigate whether a fully rational agent can employ additional hedging instruments to stabilize markets. It turns out that the answer depends on the composition of the population of non-rational traders and the information gathering costs for rationality.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(09)00115-8
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1912-1928

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1912-1928
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1997. "Derivatives Activity at Troubled Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 287-302, October.
  3. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  4. Brock, W.A., 1990. "Overlapping generations models with money and transactions costs," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 263-295 Elsevier.
  5. Cass, David, 2006. "Musings on the Cass trick," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 374-383, August.
  6. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," Working Papers id:248, eSocialSciences.
  7. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2006. "Economic Survival When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  8. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  9. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  10. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stability of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," Discussion Papers 03-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  11. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339.
  13. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2004. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," Working Paper Series 163, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  15. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  16. Amir, Rabah & Evstigneev, Igor V. & Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Market selection and survival of investment strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 105-122, February.
  17. Guesnerie, Roger & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1992. "(De)Stabilizing Speculation on Futures Markets: an Alternative View Point," IDEI Working Papers 15, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  18. Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
  19. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
  20. de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Information Dynamics In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 139-169, June.
  21. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  22. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Working Papers 9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  23. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," NBER Working Papers 14739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  25. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 01-06-031, Santa Fe Institute.
  26. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  27. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1994. "Infinite Horizon Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 853-80, July.
  28. Richard A. Ippolito, 1989. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Study of Mutual Fund Performance, 1965–1984," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 1-23.
  29. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  30. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  31. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  32. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
  33. David Goldbaum, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Learning in an Endogenously Unstable Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 105, Society for Computational Economics.
  34. Florian Wagener & Cars Hommes & William Brock, 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Working Papers wp06-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  35. Aloisio Araujo & Alvaro Sandroni, 1999. "On the Convergence to Homogeneous Expectations when Markets Are Complete," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 663-672, May.
  36. Alessandro Citanna & Karl Schmedders, 2005. "Excess price volatility and financial innovation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 559-587, October.
  37. Karceski, Jason, 2002. "Returns-Chasing Behavior, Mutual Funds, and Beta's Death," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 559-594, December.
  38. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  39. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  40. Goldbaum, David, 2006. "Self-organization and the persistence of noise in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1837-1855.
  41. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 2008. "Nonlinear difference equations, bifurcations and chaos: An introduction," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 122-177, September.
  42. Chevalier, J. & Ellison, G., 1996. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Working papers 96-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  43. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  44. Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  45. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March.
  46. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
  47. Hart, Oliver D., 1975. "On the optimality of equilibrium when the market structure is incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 418-443, December.
  48. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  49. David K. Levine & William Zame, 1996. "Debt Constraints and Equilibrium in Infinite Horizon Economies with Incomplete Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1954, David K. Levine.
  50. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
  51. David K. Levine & William R. Zame, 2002. "Does Market Incompleteness Matter?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1805-1839, September.
  52. Brock, W.A. & de Fontnouvelle, P., 1996. "Expectational Diversity in Monetary Economics," Working papers 9624, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  53. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  54. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  55. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  56. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 523-557, December.
  58. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, December.
  59. James B. Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  60. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  61. Bhamra, Harjoat Singh & Uppal, Raman, 2006. "The Effect of Introducing a Non-redundant Derivative on the Volatility of Stock-Market Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5726, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. David Cass & Alessandro Citanna, 1998. "Pareto improving financial innovation in incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(3), pages 467-494.
  63. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  64. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
  65. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  66. Jean-Michel Grandmont & Yves Younes, 1972. "On the Role of Money and the Existence of a Monetary Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 355-372.
  67. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  68. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  69. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
  70. Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002. "A Survey of Behavioral Finance," NBER Working Papers 9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533.
  72. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  73. Diane Del Guercio & Paula A. Tkac, 2000. "The determinants of the flow of funds of managed portfolios: mutual funds versus pension funds," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  74. Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
  75. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard Thaler, 2007. "Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 81-104, Summer.
  76. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  77. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  78. Elul Ronel, 1995. "Welfare Effects of Financial Innovation in Incomplete Markets Economies with Several Consumption Goods," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 43-78, February.
  79. Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629, December.
  80. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
  81. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  82. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1912-1928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.