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A Rational Route to Randomness

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  • William A. Brock
  • Cars H. Hommes

Abstract

Adaptively rational equilibrium is introduced, where agents adapt their beliefs by choosing from a finite set of predictor functions. Agents make a rational predictor choice, based upon a publically available performance measure such as realized past profits. This results in an adaptive belief system, where predictor choice is coupled to the market equilibrium dynamics. As a typical example, the cobweb model with rational versus naive expectations is analyzed. If the market is locally unstable and rational expectations are costly to obtain, a high intensity of choice for predictor selection leads to chaos and strange attractors.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:65:y:1997:i:5:p:1059-1096
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    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

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