IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Gaunersdorfer, A.

    ()

    (University of Vienna)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Wagener, F.O.O.

    ()

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

See also the publication 'Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering under Evolutionary Learning' in the 'Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization'. Volume 67(1), pp. 27-47. A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders,fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these tradertypes, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according toevolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their forecastingrule upon deviations from a benchmark fundamental. Volatility clustering arisesendogenously in this model. Two mechanisms are proposed as an explanation. Thefirst is coexistence of a stable steady state and a stable limit cycle, whicharise as a consequence of a so-called Chenciner bifurcation of the system. Thesecond is intermittency and associated bifurcation routes to strange attractors.Both phenomena are persistent and occur generically in nonlinearmulti-agent evolutionary systems.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www1.feb.uva.nl/download/GauHomWagSept2000.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 00-04.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2000
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-04
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  2. Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Duncan & de Vilder, Robin, 2000. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 247-272, February.
  3. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  4. Borgers, Tilman & Sarin, Rajiv, 1997. "Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-14, November.
  5. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
  9. Bullard James, 1994. "Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
  10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February.
  11. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  12. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
  13. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
  14. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  15. Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
  16. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
  17. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
  18. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  20. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H., 2000. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  21. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
  22. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
  23. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
  24. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
  25. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, April.
  26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.