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On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations

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  • Pintus, Patrick
  • Sands, Duncan
  • de Vilder, Robin

Abstract

We present a general framework for understanding the transition from local regular to global irregular (chaotic) behavior of nonlinear dynamical models in discrete time. The fundamental mechanism is the unfolding of quadratic tangencies between the stable and the unstable manifolds of periodic saddle points. To illustrate the relevance of the presented methods for analyzing globally a class of dynamic economic models, we apply them to the finite horizon model of Woodford.
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  • Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Duncan & de Vilder, Robin, 2000. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 247-272, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:24:y:2000:i:2:p:247-272
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    8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    9. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoci, Angelo & Galeotti, Marcello & Russu, Paolo, 2011. "Poverty trap and global indeterminacy in a growth model with open-access natural resources," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 569-591, March.
    2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    3. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model with Technology Choice," KIER Working Papers 1070, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Assenza, Tiziana & Agliari, Anna & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Santoro, Emiliano, 2009. "Borrowing constraints and complex dynamics in an OLG framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 656-669, November.
    5. Gomis-Porqueras, Pere & Haro, Alex, 2007. "Global bifurcations, credit rationing and recurrent hyperinflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 473-491, February.
    6. Luca Gori & Mauro Sodini, 2014. "Indeterminacy and nonlinear dynamics in an OLG growth model with endogenous labour supply and inherited tastes," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 159-179, April.
    7. Gardini, Laura & Hommes, Cars & Tramontana, Fabio & de Vilder, Robin, 2009. "Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 110-129, August.
    8. Gokan, Yoichi, 2008. "Alternative government financing and aggregate fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1650-1679, May.
    9. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2009. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60, March.
    10. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
    11. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    12. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    13. Ben-Gad, Michael, 2003. "Fiscal policy and indeterminacy in models of endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 322-344, February.
    14. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    15. O. Kozlovski & P. Pintus & S. van Strien & R. de Vilder, 2006. "Business–Cycle Models and the Dangers of Linearizing," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 333-353, February.
    16. Gokan, Yoichi, 2006. "Dynamic effects of government expenditure in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 323-333, March.
    17. Agliari, Anna & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2007. "Homoclinic tangles in a Kaldor-like business cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 324-347, March.
    18. Carl Chairella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2001. "Asset price dynamics in a financial market with fundamentalists and chartists," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 6, pages 1-31, January.
    19. Anna Agliari & George Vachadze, 2011. "Homoclinic and Heteroclinic Bifurcations in an Overlapping Generations Model with Credit Market Imperfection," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 241-260, October.
    20. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    21. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Carboni, Oliviero A. & Russu, Paolo, 2013. "Linear production function, externalities and indeterminacy in a capital-resource growth model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 422-428.
    23. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Polarization and Permanent Fluctuations: Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Two-Class OLG Model (Revised version with a new title "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model wit," KIER Working Papers 1063, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    24. Hommes, C.H. & Huang, H. & Wang, D., 2002. "A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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