IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations

  • Guo, Jang-Ting
  • Lansing, Kevin J.

We examine the quantitative implications of government fiscal policy in a discrete-time one-sector growth model with a productive externality that generates social increasing returns to scale. Starting from a laissez-faire economy that exhibits an indeterminate steady state (a sink), we show that the introduction of a constant capital tax or subsidy can lead to various forms of endogenous fluctuations, including stable 2-, 4-, 8-, and 10- cycles, quasi-periodic orbits, and chaos. In contrast, a constant labor tax or subsidy has no effect on the qualitative nature of the model's dynamics. We also show that the use of local steady-state analysis to detect the presence of multiple equilibria in this class of models can be misleading. For a plausible range of capital tax rates, the log-linearized dynamical system exhibits saddle-point stability (suggesting a unique equilibrium) while the true nonlinear model exhibits global indeterminancy. Finally, we explore the use of a state-contingent capital subsidy/tax scheme for stabilization purposes. We show that a local control policy designed using the log-linearized model can rule out sunspot equilibria near the steady state but may not prevent fluctuations arising from global indeterminacy. We proceed to use the nonlinear model to design a policy that can stabilize the economy against all forms of endogenous fluctuations and select a globally unique equilibrium.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100501010112
File Function: link to article abstract page
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 05 (November)
Pages: 633-664

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:05:p:633-664_01
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK

Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDY
Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Venditti, Alain, 1998. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations in two-sector growth models with externalities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 521-542, January.
  2. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Patrick Pintus & Ducan Sands & Robin De Vilder, 1998. "On the Transition from Local Regular to Global Irregular Fluctuations," Working Papers 98-54, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  4. Cazzavillan, Guido, 1996. "Public Spending, Endogenous Growth, and Endogenous Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 394-415, November.
  5. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July.
  6. Benhabib, Jess, 1980. "Adaptive monetary policy and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-266, October.
  7. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-31, November.
  8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  9. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Scholarly Articles 3451303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
  13. Baierla, Gary & Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1998. "The role of capital depreciation in multi-sectoral models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 467-479, January.
  14. Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics.
  15. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  16. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  17. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Burnside, C & Eichenbaum, M & Rebelo, S, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," RCER Working Papers 402, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  20. Paul Romer & George Evans & Seppo Hokapohja, . "Growth Cycles," Home Pages _001, Stanford University.
  21. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre & Venditti, Alain, 2001. "Intersectoral external effects, multiplicities & indeterminacies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 765-787, May.
  22. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-96, October.
  23. Bullard, James & Butler, Alison, 1993. "Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 849-67, July.
  24. Matheny, K-J, 1996. "Output Targeting and an Argument for Stabilization Policies," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1092, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  25. Nishimura Kazuo & Sorger Gerhard, 1996. "Optimal Cycles and Chaos: A Survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  26. Kaas, Leo, 1998. "Stabilizing chaos in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 313-332, January.
  27. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-92, May.
  28. Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "On the relationship between discounting and complicated behavior in dynamic optimization models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 421-434, January.
  29. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October.
  30. Bond, Eric W. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 1996. "A General Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth with Human and Physical Capital: Balanced Growth and Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 149-173, January.
  31. G, Cazzavillan & T, Lloyd-Braga & P, A, Pintus, 1997. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Working Papers 97-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  32. Dechert, W. Davis & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1983. "A complete characterization of optimal growth paths in an aggregated model with a non-concave production function," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 332-354, December.
  33. Gaines, R. E. & Peterson, J. K., 1985. "The existence of optimal consumption policies in optimal economic growth models with nonconvex technologies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-98, October.
  34. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  35. Subir K. Chattopadhyay, 1996. "Pareto optimal improvements for sunspots: The golden rule as a target for stabilization," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(1), pages 123-135.
  36. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:84-114 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
  38. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1997. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Eliminating Nonconvergent Dynamic Paths," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 249-61, February.
  39. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
  40. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  41. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1999. "Optimal taxation of capital income with imperfectly competitive product markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 967-995, June.
  42. Roberto Perli, 1995. "Indeterminacy, Home Production, and the Business Cycle: a Calibrated Analysis," Home Pages _042, University of Pennsylvania.
  43. Becker, R.C. & Foias, C., 1992. "The Local Bifurcation of Ramsey Equilibrium," Papers 92-002, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
  44. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
  45. Michener, Ronald & Ravikumar, B., 1998. "Chaotic dynamics in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1117-1137, May.
  46. Smith, Bruce D, 1994. "Efficiency and Determinacy of Equilibrium under Inflation Targeting," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 327-44.
  47. Reichlin Pietro, 1997. "Endogenous Cycles in Competitive Models: An Overview," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 1-13, January.
  48. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
  49. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  50. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
  51. Austin, D. Andrew, 1999. "Social Security as an Economic Stabilization Program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 309-333, April.
  52. Duncan K. Foley, 1992. "A Contribution to the Theory of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 1071-1088.
  53. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1995. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," Working Papers 95-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  54. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Investment cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1139-1165, May.
  55. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  56. Chattopadhyay, Subir & Muench, Thomas J., 1999. "Sunpsots and cycles reconsidered1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 67-75, April.
  57. Cres, Herve & Ghiglino, Christian & Tvede, Mich, 1997. "Externalities, Internalization and Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 465-77, May.
  58. Boldrin, Michele, 1992. "Dynamic externalities, multiple equilibria, and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 198-218, December.
  59. Guo, Jang-Ting, 1999. "Multiple equilibria and progressive taxation of labor income," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 97-103, October.
  60. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  61. Medio, Alfredo, 1999. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos Part Ii: Ergodic Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 84-114, March.
  62. Juster, F. Thomas & Stafford, Frank P., 1990. "The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioural Models, and Problems of Measurement," Working Paper Series 258, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  63. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
  64. Goenka, Aditya, 1994. "Fiscal Rules and Extrinsic Uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 401-16, May.
  65. Greiner Alfred & Semmler Willi, 1996. "Saddle Path Stability, Fluctuations, and Indeterminacy in Economic Growth," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-16, July.
  66. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:4:p:505-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. Kind, Christoph, 1999. "Remarks on the economic interpretation of Hopf bifurcations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 147-154, February.
  68. Georges, Christophre, 1995. "Adjustment costs and indeterminacy in perfect foresight models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 39-50.
  69. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  70. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  71. Chattopadhyay, Subir K, 1996. "Pareto Optimal Improvements for Sunspots: The Golden Rule as a Target for Stabilization," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(1), pages 123-35, June.
  72. Medio, Alfredo, 1998. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos Part I: A Geometrical Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 505-532, December.
  73. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1989. "Stochastic Equilibrium Oscillations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 85-102, February.
  74. Becker, Robert A., 1985. "Capital income taxation and perfect foresight," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 147-167, March.
  75. Puhakka, Mikko & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Subsidization and Stabilization: Optimal Employment Policy under Aggregate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 513-28, May.
  76. Kemp, Murray C & Long, Ngo Van & Shimomura, Koji, 1993. "Cyclical and Noncyclical Redistributive Taxation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 415-29, May.
  77. Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:05:p:633-664_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.