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Forward and Backward Dynamics in implicitly defined Overlapping Generations Models

  • Gardini, L.

    (University of Urbino)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Tramontana, F.

    (University of Ancona)

  • de Vilder, R.

    (University of Amsterdam)

In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the framework of iterated function systems (IFS) to describe the set of forward equilibria, and apply the IFS framework to a one- and a two-dimensional version of the overlapping generations (OLG)-model. We show that, if the backward dynamics is chaotic and has a homoclinic orbit (a “snap-back repellerâ€) the set of forward equilibrium paths converges to a fractal attractor. Forward equilibria may be interpreted as sunspot equilibria, where a random sunspot sequence determines equilibrium selection at each date.

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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 09-02.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:09-02
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
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  1. Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Duncan & de Vilder, Robin, 2000. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 247-272, February.
  2. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
  3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Nonlinear Difference Equations, Bifurcations and Chaos: An Introduction," Working Papers 2008_23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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  6. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Levine, David K. & Mas-Colell, Andreu & Woodford, Michael, 1991. "Gross substitutability in large-square economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-25, June.
  7. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October.
  8. Mitra, Tapan & Privileggi, Fabio, 2009. "On Lipschitz continuity of the iterated function system in a stochastic optimal growth model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 185-198, January.
  9. de Vilder, Robin, 1996. "Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 416-442, November.
  10. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  11. Mitra, Tapan, 2001. "A Sufficient Condition for Topological Chaos with an Application to a Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 133-152, January.
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  13. Kennedy, Judy A. & Stockman, David R., 2008. "Chaotic equilibria in models with backward dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 939-955, March.
  14. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1999. "Chaotic dynamics in quasi-static systems: theory and applications1," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 183-214, March.
  15. Jean-Michel Grandmont & P, A, Pintus & R, De Vilder, 1997. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Working Papers 97-28, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  16. Medio, Alfredo & Raines, Brian, 2007. "Backward dynamics in economics. The inverse limit approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1633-1671, May.
  17. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  18. Michener, Ronald & Ravikumar, B., 1998. "Chaotic dynamics in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1117-1137, May.
  19. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
  20. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
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