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Learning to believe in Simple Equilibria in a Complex OLG Economy - evidence from the lab

Author

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  • Arifovic, J.

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Salle, I.

    (University of Amsterdam
    University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We set up a laboratory experiment within the overlapping-generations model of Grandmont (1985). Under perfect foresight this model displays infinitely many equilibria: a steady state, periodic as well as chaotic equilibria. Moreover, there exists some learning theory predicting convergence to each of these equilibria. We use experimental evidence as an equilibrium selection device in this complex OLG economy, and investigate on which outcomes subjects most likely coordinate. We use two alternative experimental designs: learning-to-forecast, in which subjects predict the future price of the good, and learning-to-optimize, in which subjects make savings decision. We find that coordination on a steady state or 2-cycle are the only outcomes in this complex environment. In the learning-to-forecast design, coordination on a 2-cycle occurs frequently, even in the chaotic parameter range. Simulations of a behavioral heuristic switching model result in initial coordination on a simple AR(1) rule though sample autocorrelation learning, with subsequent coordination on a simple second-order adaptive rule once the up-and-down pattern of prices has been learned.

Suggested Citation

  • Arifovic, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Salle, I., 2016. "Learning to believe in Simple Equilibria in a Complex OLG Economy - evidence from the lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:16-06
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    2. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From Self-Fulfilling Mistakes to Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 97-123, Springer.
    3. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    4. Zhao, Dongxu & Li, Kai, 2022. "Bounded rationality, adaptive behaviour, and asset prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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