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Behavioral Learning Equilibria

Author

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  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Mei Zhu

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

This discussion paper led to an article in 'Journal of Economic Theory' (2014). Volume 150, pp. 778-814. We propose behavioral learning equilibria as a plausible explanation of coordination of individual expectations and aggregate phenomena such as excess volatility in stock prices and high persistence in inflation. Boundedly rational agents use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule and correctly forecast the unconditional sample mean and first-order sample autocorrelation. In the long run, agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule, without fully recognizing the structure of the economy. The simplicity of behavioral learning equilibria makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely. In a first application, an asset pricing model with AR(1) dividends, a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility, and it is stable under learning. In a second application, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, multiple equilibria co-exist, learning exhibits path dep endence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Cars Hommes & Mei Zhu, 2013. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-014/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    2. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
    3. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    4. Xiao, Wei & Xu, Junyi, 2014. "Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 296-299.
    5. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2017. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-87.
    6. Michele Berardi, 2018. "Information aggregation and learning in a dynamic asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 241, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    7. Federico di Pace & Kaushik Mitra & Shoujian Zhang, 2014. "Adaptive Learning and Labour Market Dynamics," CDMA Working Paper Series 201408, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    8. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    9. repec:eee:matsoc:v:90:y:2017:i:c:p:191-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
    11. Christian Schoder, 2015. "Methodological, internal and ontological inconsistencies in the conventional micro-foundation of post-Keynesian theory," Working Papers 1518, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    12. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    13. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Herding through learning in an asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 223, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    14. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2018. "Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy Design: Evidence From The Laboratory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 1035-1075, June.
    15. Dudek, Maciej K., 2014. "Living in an imaginary world that looks real," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-223.
    16. Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph & Frank, Björn, 2017. "Inspired and inspiring: Hervé Moulin and the discovery of the beauty contest game," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 191-207.
    17. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    18. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Expectations formation under adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 206, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    19. Arifovic, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Salle, I., 2016. "Learning to believe in Simple Equilibria in a Complex OLG Economy - evidence from the lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    20. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-018/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    21. repec:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:7-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9607-y is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounded rationality; Stochastic consistent expectations equilibrium; Adaptive learning; Excess volatility; Inflation persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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