IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes

  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Timmermann, Allan

This paper characterizes equilibrium asset prices under adaptive, rational and Bayesian learning schemes in a model where dividends evolve on a binomial lattice. The properties of equilibrium stock and bond prices under learning are shown to differ significantly compared with prices under full information rational expectations. Learning causes the discount factor and risk-neutral probability measure to become path-dependent and introduces serial correlation and volatility clustering in stock returns. We also derive conditions under which the expected value and volatility of stock prices will be higher under learning than under full information. Finally, we derive restrictions on prior beliefs under which Bayesian and rational learning lead to identical prices and show how the results can be generalized to more complex settings where dividends follow either multi-state i.i.d. distributions or multi-state Markov chains.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(06)00012-1
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 161-217

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:161-217
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
  2. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1999. "Learning and Excess Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 224, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Barucci, Emilio, 2000. "Exponentially fading memory learning in forward-looking economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1027-1046, June.
  4. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Nonparametric Adaptive Learning with Feedback," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 190-222, September.
  5. Wieland, Volker, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," ZEI Working Papers B 09-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  7. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July.
  9. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1991. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April.
  12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  13. Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-67, April.
  14. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1992. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," NBER Working Papers 3995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, July.
  16. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp397, Financial Markets Group.
  17. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  18. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  19. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
  20. Allan G. Timmermann, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-1145.
  21. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  22. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  23. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1113-1145, 06.
  24. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  25. Lakner, Peter, 1995. "Utility maximization with partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-273, April.
  26. Rajnish Mehra, 2006. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
  28. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-94, June.
  29. Montrucchio, Luigi & Privileggi, Fabio, 2001. "On Fragility of Bubbles in Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models of Lucas-Type," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 158-188, November.
  30. Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. " The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1525-39, December.
  31. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
  32. Kuan, Chung-Ming & White, Halbert, 1994. "Adaptive Learning with Nonlinear Dynamics Driven by Dependent Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1087-1114, September.
  33. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1982. "Learning to be rational," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 340-351, April.
  34. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
  35. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  36. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 523, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  37. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
  38. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
  39. Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March.
  40. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  41. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, . "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  42. Abel, Andrew B., 1988. "Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
  43. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
  45. Allan Timmermann, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 523-557.
  46. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  47. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-91, June.
  49. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  50. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An Exploration of the Effects of Pessimism and Doubt on Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 8132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07.
  52. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1984. "Rational expectations equilibrium: An alternative approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 116-129, October.
  53. Brandt, M.W.Michael W. & Zeng, Qi & Zhang, Lu, 2004. "Equilibrium stock return dynamics under alternative rules of learning about hidden states," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1925-1954, September.
  54. Prescott, Edward C & Mehra, Rajnish, 1980. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case of Homogeneous Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1365-79, September.
  55. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  56. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  57. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-68, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:161-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.