Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making
For a Markov decision problem in which unknown transition probabilities serve as hidden state variables, we study the quality of two approximations to the decision rule of a Bayesian who each period updates his subjective distribu- tion over the transition probabilities by Bayes? law. The first is the usual ratio- nal expectations approximation that assumes that the decision maker knows the transition probabilities. The second approximation is a version of Kreps? (1998) anticipated utility model in which decision makers update using Bayes? law but optimize in a way that is myopic with respect to their updating of probabili- ties. For a range of consumption smoothing examples, the anticipated utility approximation outperforms the rational expectations approximation. The an- ticipated utility and Bayesian models augment market prices of risk relative to the rational expectations approximation.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578|
Phone: (530) 752-0741
Fax: (530) 752-9382
Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998.
"Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?,"
NBER Working Papers
6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
- Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B., 2002.
"An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An Exploration of the Effects of Pessimism and Doubt on Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 8132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
- Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
- Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991.
"Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:05-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Scott Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.