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Stock Market Volatility and Learning

  • Adam, Klaus
  • Marcet, Albert
  • Nicolini, Juan Pablo

We study a standard consumption based asset pricing model with rational investors who entertain subjective prior beliefs about price behavior. Optimal behavior then dictates that investors learn about price behavior from past price observations. We show that this imparts momentum and mean reversion into the equilibrium behavior of the price dividend ratio, similar to what can be observed in the data. Estimating the model on U.S. stock price data using the method of simulated moments, we show that it can quantitatively account for the observed stock price volatility, the persistence of the price-dividend ratio, and the predictability of long-horizon returns. For reasonable degrees of risk aversion, the model also passes a formal statistical test for the overall goodness of fit, provided one excludes the equity premium from the set of moments to be matched.

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File URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/31217/4/Stock_Market_Volatility_and_Learning.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Mannheim, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 12-06.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:31217
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  2. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00594096, HAL.
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  6. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," CDMA Working Paper Series 201010, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Apr 2010.
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