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Ambiguity and the historical equity premium

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This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on the historically observed financial asset returns and prices. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's ambiguity aversion to match only the first moment of the risk-free rate in data and condition the uncertainty each period on the actual, observed history of (U.S.) macroeconomic growth outcomes. Ambiguity aversion accentuates the conditional uncertainty endogenously in a dynamic way, depending on the history; e.g., it increases during recessions. We show the model implied time series of asser returns match observed return dynamics of first and second conditional moments, very substantially. In particular, we find the time-series properties of our model generated equity premium, which may be regarded as an index measure of revealed uncertainty, relates very closely to those of the macroeconomic uncertainty index recently developed in Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2013)

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  • Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11032rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11032rr
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    Keywords

    Ambiguity Aversion; Asset pricing; Equity premium puzzle; uncertainty shocks; time-varying uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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