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Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Chen

    (MIT Sloan School of Management)

  • Nengjiu Ju

    (Department of Finance, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Jianjun Miao

    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

We study an investor's optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem when he confronts with two possibly misspecified submodels of stock returns: one with IID returns and the other with predictability. We adopt a generalized recursive ambiguity model to accommodate the investor's aversion to model uncertainty. The investor deals with specification doubts by slanting his beliefs about submodels of returns pessimistically, causing his investment strategy to be more conservative than the Bayesian strategy. This effect is large for high and low values of the predictive variable. Unlike in the Bayesian framework, the hedging demand against model uncertainty may cause the investor's stock allocations to first decrease sharply and then increase with his prior probability of the IID model, even when the expected stock return under the IID model is lower than under the predictability model. Adopting suboptimal investment strategies by ignoring model uncertainty can lead to sizable welfare costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, "undated". "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2009-015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    generalized recursive ambiguity utility; ambiguity aversion; model uncertainty; learning; portfolio choice; robustness; return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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