IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Risk with First-Order and Second-Order Predictability

  • Gollier Christian

    ()

    (U of Toulouse)

We consider a two-period portfolio problem with predictable assets returns. First-order (second-order) predictability means that an increase in the first period returns yields a first-order (second-order) stochastically dominated shift in the distribution of the second period state prices. Mean reversion in stock returns, Bayesian learning, stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates (bond portfolios) belong to one of these two types of predictability. We first show that a first-order stochastically dominated shift in the state price density reduces the marginal value of wealth if and only if relative risk aversion is uniformly larger than unity. This implies that first-order predictability generates a positive hedging demand for portfolio risk if this condition is met. A similar result is obtained with second-order predictability under the condition that absolute prudence be uniformly smaller than twice the absolute risk aversion. When relative risk aversion is constant, these two conditions are equivalent. We also examine the effect of exogenous predictability, i.e., when the information about the future opportunity set is conveyed by signals not contained in past asset prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejte.2004.4.1/bejte.2004.4.1.1070/bejte.2004.4.1.1070.xml?format=INT
Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 1-35

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejtec:v:contributions.4:y:2004:i:1:n:4
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejte

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christian Gollier & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1997. "Horizon Length and Portfolio Risk," NBER Technical Working Papers 0216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gollier, Christian, 2001. "Wealth Inequality and Asset Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 181-203, January.
  3. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
  6. Treich, Nicolas, 1997. "Risk tolerance and value of information in the standard portfolio model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-363, September.
  7. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-61.
  8. Michael J. BRENNAN & Yihong XIA, 1999. "Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies," FAME Research Paper Series rp10, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  9. Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  11. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
  12. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  13. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, June.
  15. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  16. Jérôme B. Detemple & René Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2000. "A Monte-Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-05, CIRANO.
  17. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  18. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
  19. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  20. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejtec:v:contributions.4:y:2004:i:1:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.