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A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

Mean-variance portfolio theory can apply to the streams of payoffs such as dividends following an initial investment, in place of one-period returns. This description is especially useful when returns are not independent over time and investors have non-marketed income. Investors hedge their outside income streams, and then their optimal payoff is split between an indexed perpetuity - the risk-free payoff - and a long-run mean-variance efficient payoff. "Long-run" moments sum over time as well as states of nature. In equilibrium, long-run expected returns vary with long-run market betas and outside- income betas. State-variable hedges do not appear in optimal payoffs or this equilibrium.

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  • John H. Cochrane, 2013. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," NBER Working Papers 18768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18768
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    5. Kim Weston & Gordan Zitkovic, 2018. "An incomplete equilibrium with a stochastic annuity," Papers 1809.05947, arXiv.org.
    6. Esben Hedegaard & Robert J. Hodrick, 2014. "Measuring the Risk-Return Tradeoff with Time-Varying Conditional Covariances," NBER Working Papers 20245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Knut Anton Mork & Hanna Marisela Eap & Magnus Eskedal Haraldsen, 2020. "Portfolio Choice for a Resource-Based Sovereign Wealth Fund: An Analysis of Cash Flows," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    9. P. Zhukov E. & П. Жуков Е., 2018. "Разве стоимость компании действительно зависит от средневзвешенной стоимости капитала и свободного денежного потока? Свидетельства иррациональности в нефтегазовом секторе // Does Enterprise Value Real," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 6(1), pages 17-28.
    10. Munk, Claus, 2020. "A mean-variance benchmark for household portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Holger Kraft & Thomas Seiferling & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2017. "Optimal consumption and investment with Epstein–Zin recursive utility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 187-226, January.
    12. Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2016. "Orthogonal Decompositions in Hilbert A-Modules," Working Papers 577, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. John H Cochrane, 2022. "Portfolios for Long-Term Investors [Rare disasters and asset markets in the twentieth century]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-42.
    14. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2017. "Jumping over a low hurdle: personal pension fund performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 153-190, January.
    15. Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Mean-variance versus utility maximization revisited: The case of constant relative risk aversion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Min Dai & Hanqing Jin & Steven Kou & Yuhong Xu, 2021. "A Dynamic Mean-Variance Analysis for Log Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1093-1108, February.
    17. Zareei, Abalfazl, 2019. "Network origins of portfolio risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Kraft, Holger & Seiferling, Thomas & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2016. "Optimal consumption and investment with Epstein-Zin recursive utility," SAFE Working Paper Series 52, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    19. Kim Weston & Gordan Žitković, 2020. "An incomplete equilibrium with a stochastic annuity," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 359-382, April.
    20. Saito Shizuki & Fukui Yoshitaka, 2019. "Whither the Concept of Income?," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, March.
    21. Marko Volker Krause, 2018. "Effects of a capital gains tax on asset pricing," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 115-148, February.
    22. Simaan, Majeed & Simaan, Yusif & Tang, Yi, 2018. "Estimation error in mean returns and the mean-variance efficient frontier," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 109-124.
    23. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2015. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy on pension funds risk incentives," MPRA Paper 73398, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2016.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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