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Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium

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  • MARTIN LETTAU
  • JESSICA A. WACHTER

Abstract

We propose a dynamic risk‐based model that captures the value premium. Firms are modeled as long‐lived assets distinguished by the timing of cash flows. The stochastic discount factor is specified so that shocks to aggregate dividends are priced, but shocks to the discount rate are not. The model implies that growth firms covary more with the discount rate than do value firms, which covary more with cash flows. When calibrated to explain aggregate stock market behavior, the model accounts for the observed value premium, the high Sharpe ratios on value firms, and the poor performance of the CAPM.

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  • Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:1:p:55-92
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01201.x
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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