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Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk

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  • Lars Peter Hansen
  • John C. Heaton
  • Nan Li

Abstract

We characterize and measure a long-term risk-return trade-off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade-off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the long-run dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic valuation model and of the model cash flow dynamics. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:116:y:2008:i:2:p:260-302
    DOI: 10.1086/588200
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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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