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What is the Consumption-CAPM missing? An informative-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models

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  • Anisha Ghosh
  • Christian Julliard

Abstract

We study a broad class of asset pricing models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) can be factorized into an observable component and a potentially unobservable, model-specific, one. Exploiting this decomposition we derive new entropy bounds that restrict the admissible regions for the SDF and its components. Without using this decomposition, to a second order approximation, entropy bounds are equivalent to the canonical Hansen-Jagannathan bounds. However, bounds based on our decomposition have higher information content, are tighter, and exploit the restriction that the SDF is a positive random variable. Our information-theoretic framework also enables us to extract a non-parametric estimate of the unobservable component of the SDF. Empirically, we find it to have a business cycle pattern, and significant correlations with both .nancial market crashes unrelated to economy-wide contractions, and the Fama-French factors. We apply our methodology to some leading consumption-based models, gaining new insights about their empirical performance.

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  • Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2011. "What is the Consumption-CAPM missing? An informative-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp691, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp691
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    3. Pietro Murialdo & Linda Ponta & Anna Carbone, 2020. "Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: a Moving Average Cluster Entropy Approach," Papers 2004.14736, arXiv.org.
    4. Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust identification of investor beliefs," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 33130-33140, December.
    5. Amit K. Sinha, 2021. "The reliability of geometric Brownian motion forecasts of S&P500 index values," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1444-1462, December.
    6. Qiu, Chen & Otsu, Taisuke, 2021. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Taisuke Otsu & Chen Qiu, 2018. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 595, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on stochastic dominance and empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 167-186.
    9. Ponta, Linda & Murialdo, Pietro & Carbone, Anna, 2021. "Information measure for long-range correlated time series: Quantifying horizon dependence in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    10. Nikolay Gospodinov & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2017. "General Aggregation of Misspecified Asset Pricing Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
    12. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2021. "Generalized aggregation of misspecified models: With an application to asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 451-467.
    13. Weidong Tian, 2021. "Long Run Law and Entropy," Papers 2111.06238, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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