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Error bands for impulse responses

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  • Christopher A. Sims
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We examine the theory and behavior in practice of Bayesian and bootstrap methods for generating error bands on impulse responses in dynamic linear models. The Bayesian intervals have a firmer theoretical foundation in small samples, are easier to compute, and are about as good in small samples by classical criteria as are the best bootstrap intervals. Bootstrap intervals based directly on the simulated small-sample distribution of an estimator, without bias correction, perform very badly. We show that a method that has been used to extend to the overidentified case standard algorithms for Bayesian intervals in reduced form models is incorrect, and we show how to obtain correct Bayesian intervals for this case.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:95-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-870, July.
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    14. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
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    Keywords

    Econometric models;

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