Error bands for impulse responses
We examine the theory and behavior in practice of Bayesian and bootstrap methods for generating error bands on impulse responses in dynamic linear models. The Bayesian intervals have a firmer theoretical foundation in small samples, are easier to compute, and are about as good in small samples by classical criteria as are the best bootstrap intervals. Bootstrap intervals based directly on the simulated small-sample distribution of an estimator, without bias correction, perform very badly. We show that a method that has been used to extend to the overidentified case standard algorithms for Bayesian intervals in reduced form models is incorrect, and we show how to obtain correct Bayesian intervals for this case.
|Date of creation:||1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Econometrica, September 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James M. Poterba & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985.
"A Tax-Based Test for Nominal Rigidities,"
376, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993.
"The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification,"
93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December.
- David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-25, February.
- Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988.
"Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Phillips, P C B, 1991.
"To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
- Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Lastrapes, William D & Selgin, George A, 1994. "Buffer-Stock Money: Interpreting Short-Run Dynamics Using Long-Run Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 34-54, February.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
- Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:95-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.