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The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels

  • Fernando Alvarez
  • Urban J. Jermann

We derive a lower bound for the size of the permanent component of asset pricing kernels. The bound is based on return properties of long-term zero-coupon bonds, risk-free bonds, and other risky securities. We find the permanent component of the pricing kernel to be very large; its volatility is about 100% of the volatility of the stochastic discount factor. This result implies that, if the pricing kernel is a function of consumption, innovations to consumption need to have permanent effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8360.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8360
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  12. Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," Working Papers 00-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  13. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  14. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Campbell, Cynthia J & Kazemi, Hossein B & Nanisetty, Prasad, 1999. "Time-Varying Risk and Return in the Bond Market: A Test of a New Equilibrium Pricing Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 631-42.
  20. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-60, May.
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  27. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 775-798, July.
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