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The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels

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  • Fernando Alvarez
  • Urban J. Jermann

Abstract

We derive a lower bound for the size of the permanent component of asset pricing kernels. The bound is based on return properties of long-term zero-coupon bonds, risk-free bonds, and other risky securities. We find the permanent component of the pricing kernel to be very large; its volatility is about 100% of the volatility of the stochastic discount factor. This result implies that, if the pricing kernel is a function of consumption, innovations to consumption need to have permanent effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," NBER Working Papers 8360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8360
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    Cited by:

    1. YiLi Chien & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1596-1650, April.
    2. Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," Working Papers 01-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Francois De Paul Silatchom, 2017. "VECM and Variance Decomposition: An Application to the Consumption-Wealth Ratio," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 188-199, June.
    4. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
    5. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns? (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 322, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "A Theory of Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 10955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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