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Equity-Premium And Risk-Free-Rate Puzzles At Long Horizons

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  • DANIEL, KENT
  • MARSHALL, DAVID

Abstract

The failure of consumption-based asset pricing models to match the stochastic properties of the equity premium and the risk-free rate has been attributed by some authors to frictions, transaction costs, or durability. However, such frictions primarily would affect the higher-frequency data components: Consumption-based pricing models that concentrate on long-horizon returns should be more successful. We consider two consumption-based models: time-separable utility, and the habit model of Constantinides. We estimate a vector ARCH model that includes the pricing kernel and the equity return, and use the fitted model to assess the model's implications for the equity premium and for the risk-free rate. Neither model performs well at a quarterly horizon, but at longer horizons the Constantinides model can match the mean and the variance of the observed equity premium, captures time variation of the equity premium, and can better match the observed risk-free rate. We conclude that the equity-premium and risk-free-rate puzzles are primarily problems for shorter-horizon returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel, Kent & Marshall, David, 1997. "Equity-Premium And Risk-Free-Rate Puzzles At Long Horizons," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 452-484, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:02:p:452-484_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2009. "The Price Is (Almost) Right," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2739-2782, December.
    2. Victoria Galsband, 2010. "The cross-section of equity returns and assets’ fundamental cash-flow risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(4), pages 327-351, December.
    3. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium: evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 309-334, March.
    4. Stanislav Khrapov, 2012. "Risk Premia: Short and Long-term," Working Papers w0169, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
    6. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
    7. Mikhail Chernov & Lars A Lochstoer & Stig R H Lundeby, 2022. "Conditional Dynamics and the Multihorizon Risk-Return Trade-Off," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1310-1347.
    8. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    9. Qi Liu & Libin Tao & Weixing Wu & Jianfeng Yu, 2017. "Short- and Long-Run Business Conditions and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4137-4157, December.
    10. Jianfeng Yu, 2012. "Using Long-Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 317-335, October.
    11. Eunhee Lee & Chang Kim & In-Moo Kim, 2015. "Equity premium over different investment horizons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1169-1187, May.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Suresh K. Nallareddy & Biqin Xie, 2012. "The "Out of Sample" Performance of Long-run Risk Models," NBER Working Papers 17848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Yao, Tong, 2007. "Testing heterogeneous-agent models: an alternative aggregation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 369-412, March.
    15. Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
    16. Li, Huan, 2020. "Asset pricing with long-run durable expenditure risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    17. Abhyankar, Abhay & Klinkowska, Olga & Lee, Soyeon, 2015. "Consumption risk and the cross-section of government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 180-200.
    18. Hong Yan, 2009. "Estimation Uncertainty and the Equity Premium," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 243-268, September.

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