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The cross-section of equity returns and assets’ fundamental cash-flow risk

  • Victoria Galsband

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    The decomposition of consumption beta into a component driven by assets’ cash-flow news and one related to assets’ discount-rate news reveals that macroeconomic risks embodied in cash flows largely account for the cross-sectional dynamics of average stock returns. Empirically, we find that differences in expected excess returns between low book-to-market and high book-to-market portfolios are associated with differences in their cash-flow betas, and thus reflect macroeconomic, especially consumption-related risks. This result holds true for a broad set of consumption-based asset pricing models. In addition, the results indicate that the risk premium on equity markets is primarily driven by the exposure of assets’ cash-flow components to the cyclical variability of durable consumption goods. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2010

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-010-0140-z
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 327-351

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:24:y:2010:i:4:p:327-351
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    1. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 49-73, April.
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    8. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao, 1995. "Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods," MPRA Paper 13690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    12. Daniel, Kent & Marshall, David, 1997. "Equity-Premium And Risk-Free-Rate Puzzles At Long Horizons," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 452-484, June.
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