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The Price is (Almost) Right

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  • Randolph B. Cohen
  • Christopher Polk
  • Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Abstract

Most previous research tests market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies, and typically rejects the joint hypothesis. In contrast, we measure the ability of a simple risk model and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we find that cash-flow betas (measured by regressing firms' earnings on the market's earnings) explain the prices of value and growth stocks well, with a plausible premium. Second, we use a present-value model to decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' price-to-book ratios into two components due to risk-adjusted fundamental value and mispricing. When we allow the discount rates to vary with cash-flow betas, the variance share of mispricing is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Price is (Almost) Right," NBER Working Papers 10131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Gregory & Julie Whittaker, 2013. "Exploring the Valuation of Corporate Social Responsibility—A Comparison of Research Methods," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 116(1), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Fukuta, Yuichi & Yamane, Akiko, 2015. "Value premium and implied equity duration in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 102-121.
    3. Stephen H. Penman, 2010. "Financial Forecasting, Risk and Valuation: Accounting for the Future," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 211-228.
    4. Michael Weber, 2016. "Cash Flow Duration and the Term Structure of Equity Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 6043, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Stefan Nagel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 231-292.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    7. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: An alternative view," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 455-466, December.
    8. Chen, Huafeng (Jason), 2011. "Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 402-423, May.
    9. Paugam, Luc, 2011. "Valorisation et reporting du goodwill : enjeux théoriques et empiriques," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8007 edited by Casta, Jean-François, March.
    10. Stephen Penman, 2016. "Valuation: Accounting for Risk and the Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 106-130, March.
    11. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Price Dividend Ratio Factors : Proxies for Long Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Cash-Flow Risk, Discount Risk, and the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:kap:jrefec:v:54:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9574-z is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:wyi:journl:002153 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
    16. Sarmiento-Sabogal, Julio & Sadeghi, Mehdi, 2014. "Unlevered betas and the cost of equity capital: An empirical approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-105.
    17. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    18. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "Does sensitivity to cashflow news explain the value premium on European stock markets?," Technical Reports 2006,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    20. ToÌ th, M. & LancÌŒariÄ , D. & PiterkovaÌ , A. & Savov, R., 2014. "Systematic Risk in Agriculture: A Case of Slovakia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(4), December.
    21. repec:spr:fininn:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-017-0082-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Dong Lou & Christopher Polk, "undated". "Inferring Arbitrage Activity from Return Correlations," FMG Discussion Papers dp721, Financial Markets Group.
    23. Jean-François Casta & Luc Paugam & Hervé Stolowy, 2011. "Non-additivity in accounting valuation: Internally generated goodwill as an aggregation of interacting assets," Post-Print halshs-00541525, HAL.
    24. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Chen, Andrew Y., 2014. "Habit, Production, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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