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Fundamental Value and Market Value

  • William C. Brainard
  • Matthew D. Shapiro
  • John B. Shoven

Much of James Tobin's professional life has been devoted to studying the interrelationship between the goods and financial markets. His general equilibrium approaches stresses the interaction of the demand for financial assets with the decision to accumulate productive capital. His emphasis on q, the ratio of market value of assets to their replacement cost, has shaped how students of the aggregate economy understand the link between the stock market and fixed investment. This paper examines the empirical linkage between fundamental returns on physical corporate assets and market return on financial claims on those assets. It defines the fundamental return as real cash flow divided by replacement cost. It examines whether the market return on individual firms respond more to aggregate shocks to the fundamental return or to the market return itself. It then examines whether aggregate market risk or aggregate fundamental risk is priced. Although market risk is priced, the paper does find that fundamental risk is an important factor in explaining risk premia.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3452.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3452.

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Date of creation: Sep 1990
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Money, Macroeconomics, and Economics Policy: Essays in Honor of James Tobin , W.C. Brainard, W.D. Nordhaus, and H.W. Watts, eds. Cambridge, M.I.T. Press, 1991.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3452
Note: ME
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  1. Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
  2. Robert Stambaugh, . "On the Exclusion of Assets from Tests of the Two-Parameter Model: A Sensitivity Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-81, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
  4. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
  5. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  6. Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-59, August.
  7. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  8. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Multivariate tests of financial models : A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-27, March.
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