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Fundamental Value and Market Value


  • William C. Brainard
  • Matthew D. Shapiro
  • John B. Shoven


Much of James Tobin's professional life has been devoted to studying the interrelationship between the goods and financial markets. His general equilibrium approaches stresses the interaction of the demand for financial assets with the decision to accumulate productive capital. His emphasis on q, the ratio of market value of assets to their replacement cost, has shaped how students of the aggregate economy understand the link between the stock market and fixed investment. This paper examines the empirical linkage between fundamental returns on physical corporate assets and market return on financial claims on those assets. It defines the fundamental return as real cash flow divided by replacement cost. It examines whether the market return on individual firms respond more to aggregate shocks to the fundamental return or to the market return itself. It then examines whether aggregate market risk or aggregate fundamental risk is priced. Although market risk is priced, the paper does find that fundamental risk is an important factor in explaining risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • William C. Brainard & Matthew D. Shapiro & John B. Shoven, 1990. "Fundamental Value and Market Value," NBER Working Papers 3452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3452
    Note: ME

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-459, August.
    3. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1982. "On the exclusion of assets from tests of the two-parameter model : A sensitivity analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 237-268, November.
    4. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
    5. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
    7. Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Multivariate tests of financial models : A new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 3-27, March.
    8. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    2. Waśniewski, Krzysztof, 2010. "Corporate strategies – the institutional approach," MPRA Paper 25190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2009. "The Price Is (Almost) Right," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2739-2782, December.
    4. John M. Abowd, 1989. "Does Performance-Based Managerial Compensation Affect Subsequent Corporate Performance?," NBER Working Papers 3149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lambert Jerman, 2015. "Les Enjeux De L'Application Des Normes Ias-Ifrs : L'Etude Des Preparateurs Des Comptes, Une Perspective De Recherche Encore Inexploree," Post-Print hal-01188736, HAL.

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