IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v85y2023ics1042443123000549.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives DeFi market returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Şoiman, Florentina
  • Dumas, Jean-Guillaume
  • Jimenez-Garces, Sonia

Abstract

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is a nascent set of financial services, using tokens, smart contracts, and blockchain technology as financial instruments. We investigate 3 possible drivers of DeFi returns: exposure to the cryptocurrency market, the network effect, and the valuation ratio. As DeFi tokens are distinct from classical cryptocurrencies, we designed a new dedicated market index, denoted iDeFiX. We compare our index with the one created by Nasdaq and obtain similar results. First, we show that DeFi tokens returns are driven by their own network variables and the cryptocurrency market. We construct a valuation ratio for the DeFi market by dividing the Total Value Locked (TVL) by the Market Capitalization (MC). Our findings do not support the assumption regarding TVL/MC exposure. Overall, our empirical study shows that the impact of the cryptocurrency market on DeFi returns is stronger than any other considered driver and provides superior explanatory power.

Suggested Citation

  • Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s1042443123000549
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101786
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443123000549
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101786?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
    2. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2020. "Market risk and Bitcoin returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 453-477, November.
    3. Fabian Schär, 2021. "Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(2), pages 153-174, April.
    4. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    5. Caroline Le Moign, 2019. "ICO françaises : un nouveau mode de financement ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 131-144.
    6. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    7. Ciaian, Pavel & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Kancs, d'Artis, 2018. "Virtual relationships: Short- and long-run evidence from BitCoin and altcoin markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-195.
    8. John M. Griffin & Amin Shams, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1913-1964, August.
    9. Shaen Corbet & John W. Goodell & Samet Gunay & Kerem Kaskaloglu, 2023. "Are DeFi tokens a separate asset class from conventional cryptocurrencies?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 609-630, March.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "The volatility surprise of leading cryptocurrencies: Transitory and permanent linkages," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    11. Grobys, Klaus & Sapkota, Niranjan, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies and momentum," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 6-10.
    12. Sabrina T Howell & Marina Niessner & David Yermack & Jiang Wei, 2020. "Initial Coin Offerings: Financing Growth with Cryptocurrency Token Sales," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 3925-3974.
    13. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2022. "What drives DeFi prices? Investigating the effects of investor attention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2018. "Collective behavior of cryptocurrency price changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 499-509.
    15. Tamás Katona, 2021. "Decentralized Finance - The Possibilities of a Blockchain "Money Lego" System," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 20(1), pages 74-102.
    16. Sam M. Werner & Daniel Perez & Lewis Gudgeon & Ariah Klages-Mundt & Dominik Harz & William J. Knottenbelt, 2021. "SoK: Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2101.08778, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    17. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    18. Oliva, I. & Renò, R., 2018. "Optimal portfolio allocation with volatility and co-jump risk that Markowitz would like," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 242-256.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Jason Scharfman, 2022. "Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Compliance and Operations," Springer Books, in: Cryptocurrency Compliance and Operations, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 171-186, Springer.
    21. Andrei-Dragoş Popescu, 2020. "Decentralized Finance (Defi) – The Lego Of Finance," Social Sciences and Education Research Review, Department of Communication, Journalism and Education Sciences, University of Craiova, vol. 7(1), pages 321-348, July.
    22. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    23. Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Trading volume and the predictability of return and volatility in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 340-346.
    24. Hinzen, Franz J. & John, Kose & Saleh, Fahad, 2022. "Bitcoin’s limited adoption problem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 347-369.
    25. Arianna Agosto & Alessia Cafferata, 2020. "Financial Bubbles: A Study of Co-Explosivity in the Cryptocurrency Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    27. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    28. Yarovaya, Larisa & Zięba, Damian, 2022. "Intraday volume-return nexus in cryptocurrency markets: Novel evidence from cryptocurrency classification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    29. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Sevic, Aleksandar & González-López, Isaac, 2022. "A preliminary assessment of the performance of DeFi cryptocurrencies in relation to other financial assets, volatility, and user-generated content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    30. Kanis Saengchote, 2021. "Where Do DeFi Stablecoins Go? A Closer Look at What DeFi Composability Really Means," PIER Discussion Papers 156, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    31. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    32. Yizhi Wang & Florian Horky & Lennart J. Baals & Brian M. Lucey & Samuel A. Vigne, 2022. "Bubbles all the way down? Detecting and date-stamping bubble behaviours in NFT and DeFi markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 415-436, October.
    33. Sirio Aramonteand & Wenqian Huang & Andreas Schrimpf, 2021. "DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    34. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2020. "Earnings, retained earnings, and book-to-market in the cross section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 231-254.
    35. Trimborn, Simon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "CRIX an Index for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-122.
    36. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    37. Hu, Yang & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Oxley, Les, 2019. "Market efficiency of the top market-cap cryptocurrencies: Further evidence from a panel framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 138-145.
    38. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    39. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-841, August.
    40. Burak Pirgaip & Burcu Dinçergök & Şüheda Haşlak, 2019. "Bitcoin Market Price Analysis and an Empirical Comparison with Main Currencies, Commodities, Securities and Altcoins," Contributions to Economics, in: Umit Hacioglu (ed.), Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation, chapter 0, pages 141-166, Springer.
    41. Dowling, Michael, 2022. "Is non-fungible token pricing driven by cryptocurrencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    42. Lin William Cong & Ye Li & Neng Wang, 2021. "Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation [The demand of liquid assets with uncertain lumpy expenditures]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1105-1155.
    43. Nadler, Philip & Guo, Yike, 2020. "The fair value of a token: How do markets price cryptocurrencies?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    44. Hazlett, Peter K. & Luther, William J., 2020. "Is bitcoin money? And what that means," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 144-149.
    45. Paulo Ferreira & Éder Pereira, 2019. "Contagion Effect in Cryptocurrency Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-8, July.
    46. Yousaf, Imran & Nekhili, Ramzi & Gubareva, Mariya, 2022. "Linkages between DeFi assets and conventional currencies: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    47. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    48. Korniotis, George & Bhambhwani, Siddharth & Delikouras, Stefanos, 2019. "Blockchain Characteristics and the Cross-Section of Cryptocurrency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    50. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    52. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2021. "The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2663-2683, November.
    53. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Diversifying equity with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    54. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    55. William C. Brainard & Matthew D. Shapiro & John B. Shoven, 1990. "Fundamental Value and Market Value," NBER Working Papers 3452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Celeste, Valerio & Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin, 2020. "Fractal dynamics and wavelet analysis: Deep volatility and return properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 310-324.
    57. Christoph Wronka, 2021. "Financial crime in the decentralized finance ecosystem: new challenges for compliance," Journal of Financial Crime, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 97-113, November.
    58. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    59. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    60. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
    61. Teng Andrea Xu & Jiahua Xu & Kristof Lommers, 2022. "DeFi vs TradFi: Valuation Using Multiples and Discounted Cash Flow," Papers 2210.16846, arXiv.org.
    62. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    63. Lewis Gudgeon & Sam M. Werner & Daniel Perez & William J. Knottenbelt, 2020. "DeFi Protocols for Loanable Funds: Interest Rates, Liquidity and Market Efficiency," Papers 2006.13922, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florentina c{S}oiman & Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX," Papers 2204.00251, arXiv.org.
    2. Florentina Șoiman & Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX [Le rendement de (I)DeFiX]," Working Papers hal-03625891, HAL.
    3. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    4. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    5. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "Economic Evaluation of Cryptocurrency Investment," MPRA Paper 108283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2021. "The entry and exit dynamics of the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Risk-weighted cryptocurrency indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco & Tolentino, Marta, 2023. "Connectedness between Defi assets and equity markets during COVID-19: A sector analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Wanas Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Does volatility connectedness across major cryptocurrencies behave the same at different frequencies? A portfolio risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 96-113.
    11. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. BRIK, Hatem & El OUAKDI, Jihene & FTITI, Zied, 2022. "Roles of stable versus nonstable cryptocurrencies in Bitcoin market dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & Šević, Aleksandar & González-López, Isaac, 2023. "Impact of social metrics in decentralized finance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    16. Fieberg, Christian & Günther, Steffen & Poddig, Thorsten & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Non-standard errors in the cryptocurrency world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Does blockchain patent-development influence Bitcoin risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movement of cryptocurrency return and volatility: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Yulin Liu & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach," Papers 2201.12893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DeFi token; Index; Asset pricing; Financial return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s1042443123000549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.