IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v133y2021ics0378426621002053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Li, Yi
  • Xiong, Xiong
  • Wang, Pengfei

Abstract

This paper investigates whether investors can earn higher profits by holding cryptocurrencies with higher downside risk. Both portfolio-level analyses and cryptocurrency-level cross-sectional regressions suggest a positive cross-sectional relation between downside risk and future returns in the cryptocurrency market. In addition to the risk-return tradeoff theory, the limits-to-arbitrage theory also has some explanatory power for these results. Moreover, we examine the source of downside risk premium, the existence of upside risk premium, as well as the intertemporal relation between downside risk and future returns. Collectively, our findings highlight the important role of downside risk in determining cryptocurrency prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621002053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106246?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2018. "An application of extreme value theory to cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 109-111.
    2. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    3. Yechen Zhu & David Dickinson & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Erratum to: Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-1, December.
    4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    6. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    7. John M. Griffin & Amin Shams, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1913-1964, August.
    8. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2019. "Global downside risk and equity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2014. "Hybrid Tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns: When Does the Tail Wag the Dog?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 206-246.
    10. Bing Liang & Hyuna Park, 2007. "Risk Measures for Hedge Funds: a Cross‐sectional Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(2), pages 333-370, March.
    11. Pelster, Matthias & Breitmayer, Bastian & Hasso, Tim, 2019. "Are cryptocurrency traders pioneers or just risk-seekers? Evidence from brokerage accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 98-100.
    12. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2020. "A Model of Cryptocurrencies," NBER Working Papers 26816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    14. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
    15. Bali, Turan G. & Gokcan, Suleyman & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Value at risk and the cross-section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1135-1166, April.
    16. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    17. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Riordan, Ryan & Theissen, Erik, 2021. "How to measure the liquidity of cryptocurrency markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    22. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    23. Trimborn, Simon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "CRIX an Index for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-122.
    24. Donglian Ma & Hisashi Tanizaki, 2019. "On the day-of-the-week effects of Bitcoin markets: international evidence," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 455-478, July.
    25. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    26. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    27. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 293-319.
    28. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    29. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2019. "Common risk factors in the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 619-642.
    30. Matthias Pelster & Bastian Breitmayer & Tim Hasso, 2019. "Are cryptocurrency traders pioneers or just risk-seekers? Evidence from brokerage accounts," Papers 1906.11968, arXiv.org.
    31. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2009. "Is There an Intertemporal Relation between Downside Risk and Expected Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 883-909, August.
    32. Lin William Cong & Ye Li & Neng Wang, 2021. "Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation [The demand of liquid assets with uncertain lumpy expenditures]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1105-1155.
    33. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    34. Min Xu & Xingtong Chen & Gang Kou, 2019. "A systematic review of blockchain," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    35. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi, 2020. "Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in cryptocurrency markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    36. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    37. Korniotis, George & Bhambhwani, Siddharth & Delikouras, Stefanos, 2019. "Blockchain Characteristics and the Cross-Section of Cryptocurrency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Yechen Zhu & David Dickinson & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, December.
    39. Farago, Adam & Tédongap, Roméo, 2018. "Downside risks and the cross-section of asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 69-86.
    40. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    41. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    42. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    43. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    44. Price, Kelly & Price, Barbara & Nantell, Timothy J, 1982. "Variance and Lower Partial Moment Measures of Systematic Risk: Some Analytical and Empirical Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 843-855, June.
    45. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2005. "Household Portfolio Diversification: A Case for Rank-Dependent Preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1467-1502.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Dobrynskaya, Victoria, 2024. "Is downside risk priced in cryptocurrency market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Wang, Chen & Xiong, Xiong & Shen, Dehua, 2022. "Tail risks, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Khasawneh, Maher & McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2024. "Left-tail risk and UK stock return predictability: Underreaction, overreaction, and arbitrage difficulties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    6. Dong, Bingbing & Jiang, Lei & Liu, Jinyu & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "Liquidity in the cryptocurrency market and commonalities across anomalies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Value-at-risk and the cross section of emerging market hedge fund returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
    9. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2019. "Global downside risk and equity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    12. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Ji Cao & Marc Oliver Rieger & Lei Zhao, 2019. "Safety First, Loss Probability, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2019-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    14. Eom, Cheoljun & Eom, Yunsung & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Left-tail momentum and tail properties of return distributions: A case of Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Chen, Haiqiang & Gu, Ming & Liu, Xiaoqun, 2023. "What can we learn from the convenience yield of Bitcoin? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 141-153.
    16. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
    19. Liu, Jinjing, 2023. "A novel downside beta and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. González-Sánchez, Mariano, 2022. "Factorial asset pricing models using statistical anomalies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; Downside risk; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.