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Downside risks and the cross-section of asset returns

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  • Farago, Adam
  • Tédongap, Roméo

Abstract

In an intertemporal equilibrium asset pricing model featuring disappointment aversion and changing macroeconomic uncertainty, we show that besides the market return and market volatility, three disappointment-related factors are also priced: a downstate factor, a market downside factor, and a volatility downside factor. We find that expected returns on various asset classes reflect premiums for bearing undesirable exposures to these factors. The signs of estimated risk premiums are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Our most general, five-factor model is very successful in jointly pricing stock, option, and currency portfolios, and provides considerable improvement over nested specifications previously discussed in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Farago, Adam & Tédongap, Roméo, 2018. "Downside risks and the cross-section of asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 69-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:129:y:2018:i:1:p:69-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.03.010
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    6. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Michael Ellington, 2023. "Common Firm-level Investor Fears: Evidence from Equity Options," Papers 2309.03968, arXiv.org.
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    8. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Farrukh Naveed & Muhammad Ishfaq & Zahid Maqbool, 2021. "The downside risk of mutual funds: Does the quality of corporate governance matter? Empirical evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 376-388, September.
    10. Jozef Barunik & Matej Nevrla, 2022. "Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Risk," Papers 2208.14267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Lyu, Yongjian & Wei, Yu & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Good volatility, bad volatility and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Lu, Wenna & Copeland, Laurence & Xu, Yongdeng, 2021. "The Pricing of Unexpected Volatility in the Currency Market," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    13. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan, 2021. "Hedging macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 23-45.
    14. Chen, Xi & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Jump and volatility risk in the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2020. "Observable implications of the conditional CAPM," Discussion Papers on Economics 13/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    16. Caglayan, Mustafa O. & Lawrence, Edward & Reyes-Peña, Robinson, 2023. "Hot potatoes: Underpricing of stocks following extreme negative returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Liu, Jinjing, 2023. "A novel downside beta and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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    20. Mirco Rubin & Dario Ruzzi, 2020. "Equity Tail Risk in the Treasury Bond Market," Papers 2007.05933, arXiv.org.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generalized disappointment aversion; Downside risks; Cross-section;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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