IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs

  • Huang, Huichou
  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Zhao, Yang

We show that the profitability of currency carry trades can be understood as the compensation for exchange rate misalignment risk based on the rare disastrous model of exchange rates (Farhi and Gabaix, 2008). It explains over 97% of the cross-sectional excess returns and dominates other candidate factors, including volatility and liquidity risk. Both currency carry and misalignment portfolios trade on the position-likelihood indicator (Huang and MacDonald, 2013) that explores the probability of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) to hold in the option pricing model. To examine the crash story of currency risk premia, we employ copula method to capture the tail sensitivity (CS) of currencies to the global market, and compute the moment risk premia by model-free approach using volatility risk premia as the proxy for downside insurance costs (DI). We find: (i) notable time-varying currency risk premia in pre-crisis and post-crisis periods with respect to both CS and DI; and (ii) the pay-off components of the strategy trading on skew risk premia mimic the behavior of currency carry trades. We further reveal and rationalize the differences in the performances of currency portfolios doubly sorted by CS and DI. We propose a novel trading strategy that makes a trade-off of the time-variation in risk premia between low and high volatility regimes and is thereby almost immunized from risk reversals. It generates a sizable average excess return (6.69% per annum, the highest among several studied currency trading strategies over the sample period) and its alpha that cannot be explained by canonical risk factors, including hedge fund risk factors suggested by Fung and Hsieh (2001). Unlike other currency trading strategies, its cumulative wealth is driven by both exchange rate and yield components. We also investigate the behavior of currency momentum that is shown subject to credit risk, similarly to its stock market version (Avramov, Chordia, Jostova, and Philipov, 2007): Winner currencies performance well when sovereign default probability is low and loser currencies provide the hedge against this type of risk when sovereign default probability hikes up. The changes in global sovereign CDS spreads contribute 59% of the variation to the factor that captures the common dynamics of the currency trading strategies. From asset allocation perspective, a crash-averse investor is better off by allocating about 40% of the wealth to currency-misalignment portfolio and about 35% to crash-sensitive portfolio in tranquil period while reallocating about 85% of portfolio holdings to downside-insurance-cost strategy during the financial turmoil.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53745/1/MPRA_paper_53745.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53831/1/MPRA_paper_53831.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53986/1/MPRA_paper_53986.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55395/1/MPRA_paper_55395.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53989/1/MPRA_paper_53989.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53745.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 23 Jul 2012
Date of revision: 18 Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53745
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gabaix, Xavier, 2015. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 10334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  5. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
  6. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," Working Papers 10-33, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June.
  9. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A measure of co-movement for economic variables: theory and empirics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10139, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
  11. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2013. "Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets and Other Asset Classes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
  14. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
  16. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
  18. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  20. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
  21. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
  22. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  23. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
  25. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  26. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  28. Christoffersen, Peter & Langlois, Hugues, 2013. "The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(05), pages 1371-1404, October.
  29. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
  30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  31. Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Capacity constraints, investor information, and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 401-416.
  32. Akram, Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
  34. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2011. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Frahm, Gabriel & Junker, Markus & Schmidt, Rafael, 2005. "Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient: Properties and pitfalls," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 80-100, August.
  36. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
  37. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Joe, Harry & Li, Haijun & Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K., 2010. "Tail dependence functions and vine copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 252-270, January.
  39. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, 07.
  40. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
  42. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2004. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 628, Econometric Society.
  44. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
  45. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2014. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 19854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The generalised dynamic factor model: one sided estimation and forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10129, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  48. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
  49. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  50. Nicholas BARBERIS & Ming HUANG & Tano SANTOS, 2000. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," FAME Research Paper Series rp16, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  51. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print peer-00844811, HAL.
  52. Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  53. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  54. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  55. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
  56. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Anthony Neuberger, 2012. "Realized Skewness," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(11), pages 3423-3455.
  58. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05.
  59. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  60. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  61. Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, 04.
  62. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  63. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
  65. Verardo, Michela, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Momentum Profits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 795-822, August.
  66. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  67. Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2004. "Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1039-1082, 06.
  68. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing, and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2417-2448, November.
  69. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00844811, HAL.
  70. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  71. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure, the CAPM, and portfolio sorts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 605-625, December.
  72. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  73. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
  74. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  75. William Fung & David A. Hsieh & Narayan Y. Naik & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk, and Capital Formation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1777-1803, 08.
  76. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversi?cation Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2012-48, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  77. William R. Cline, 2008. "Estimating Consistent Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series WP08-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  78. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, 02.
  79. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  80. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  81. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
  82. Roman Kozhan & Anthony Neuberger & Paul Schneider, 2013. "The Skew Risk Premium in the Equity Index Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(9), pages 2174-2203.
  83. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  84. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
  85. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2007. "Momentum and Credit Rating," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2503-2520, October.
  86. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
  87. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  88. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  89. Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2009. "The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 437-442, 03.
  90. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
  91. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
  92. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  93. Dias, Alexandra & Embrechts, Paul, 2010. "Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1687-1705, December.
  94. Soeren Hvidkjaer, 2006. "A Trade-Based Analysis of Momentum," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 457-491.
  95. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, 06.
  96. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  97. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  98. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
  99. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
  100. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  101. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2009. "Hedge Fund Risk Dynamics: Implications for Performance Appraisal," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 985-1035, 04.
  102. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "Tacit On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 09.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  103. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
  104. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, 04.
  105. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
  106. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  107. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, 05.
  108. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald, 2012. "Currency Carry Trades, Position-Unwinding Risk, and Sovereign Credit Premia," MPRA Paper 47987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2013.
  109. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.