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Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries

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  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Preethike Dias

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the behaviour equilibrium exchange rates (BEERs) of Clark and MacDonald (1999) for the effective exchange rates of ten industrialised and emerging market economies that rank within the top 15 contributory economies to global imbalances. The sample period is 1988, quarter 1 to 2006 quarter 1. The conditioning variables used in the estimation of the BEER are: net exports as a proportion of GDP, a real interest differential, a terms of trade differential and GDP per capita differential. The ‘foreign’ magnitudes in the differentials were constructed using the trade weights used to construct the effective exchange rates. Using both single country and panel econometric methods, plausible BEER estimates were reported. These estimates were then used to back out the required exchange rate adjustments necessary to fulfil the three scenarios of Williamson (2006). The ball park currency adjustments required are in the range of 27.3 to 46.6 per cent devaluations for the Chinese renminbi, 5 to 11 per cent for the US dollar, approximately 6 per cent for the Japanese yen and no adjustment for the euro or Sterling.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    2. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    5. MacDonald, Ronald & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2007. "Real exchange rates, imperfect substitutability, and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 639-664, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jair Ojeda Joya & Joan Granados & Carolina Arteaga, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    5. Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno & Flávio Vilela Vieir, 2014. "Desalinhamento Cambial, Volatilidade Cambial E Crescimento Econômico: Uma Análise Para A Economia Brasileira (1995-2011)," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 100, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    7. Duo Qin & Xinhua He & Yimeng Liu, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today," Working Papers 667, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2011. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1288-1307, August.
    9. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," FIW Working Paper series 065, FIW.
    10. Xinhua He & Duo Qin & Yimeng Liu, 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments: a comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 247-266, May.
    11. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," CEIS Research Paper 360, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Nov 2015.
    12. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    13. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2014. "Long-run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," MPRA Paper 59571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2014.
    14. Baak, SaangJoon, 2012. "Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 227-234.
    15. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.

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