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Global imbalances and the Intertemporal External Budget Constraint: A multicointegration approach

Author

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  • Mariam Camarero

    (Department of Economics, Jaume I University)

  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre

    (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Spanish Economy, University of Barcelona)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (Department of Applied Economics II, University of Valencia)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the external solvency of a group of 23 OECD countries for the period 1970-2012 The empirical strategy adopted underlines the increasing importance of the ?nancial channel for the external adjustment as proposed in Gourinchas and Rey (2007). We unify the traditional approaches to testing for external sustainability considering the stock-?ow system created by the variables representing the external relationships of an open economy. External sustainability is tested using several types of cointegration and multicointegration tests. The results obtained point to weak sustainability in the ?ows analysis, whereas some degree of strong sustainability is found for up to six countries in the stock ?ow approach. Among these countries we ?nd both non-European economies, such as Japan and New Zealand, and Euro-area members especially those with more restricted access to ?nancing in the international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "Global imbalances and the Intertemporal External Budget Constraint: A multicointegration approach," Working Papers 1303, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1303
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    3. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
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    7. Singh Tarlok, 2017. "Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Estimators," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    10. Camarero, Mariam & Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Effects of external imbalances on GDP recovery patterns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 349-362.
    11. Branimir Skoko & Pero Zovko, 2018. "Sustainability of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s international trade flows," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 1-8, December.
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    14. Koch, Cathérine Tahmee, 2014. "Risky adjustments or adjustments to risks: Decomposing bank leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 242-254.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; net foreign assets; multicointegration; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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