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On the solvency of nations: are global imbalances consistent with intertemporal budget constraints?

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Abstract

Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net foreign assets (NFA) are integrated of any finite order, or if net exports (NX) and NFA satisfy an error-correction specification with a residual integrated of any finite order. We test these conditions using data for 21 industrial and 29 emerging economies for the 1970-2004 period. The results show that, despite the large global imbalances of recent years, NFA and NX positions are consistent with external solvency. Country-specific unit root tests on NFA-GDP ratios suggest that nearly all of them are integrated of order 1. Pooled Mean Group error-correction estimation yields evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of the NX-GDP ratio to the NFA-GDP ratio that is largely homogeneous across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "On the solvency of nations: are global imbalances consistent with intertemporal budget constraints?," International Finance Discussion Papers 975, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:975
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    1. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D Roldᮠ & Esteve, 2014. "Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 441-449, February.
    3. Christian Schoder & Christian R. Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2012. "Are the current account imbalances between EMU countries sustainable?," IMK Working Paper 90-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Christian Schoder & Christian R. Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Are The Current Account Imbalances Between Emu Countries Sustainable? Evidence From Parametric And Non‐Parametric Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1179-1204, November.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración," Working Papers 2112, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

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