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Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (Departamento of Economía, Universidad Jaume I e INTECO)

  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre

    (Departamento of Econometría, Estadística y Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Barcelona)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (Departamento of Economía Aplicada II, Universidad de Valencia e INTECO)

Abstract

Este artículo analiza la sostenibilidad externa de un grupo de 23 países de la OCDE durante el período 1970-2020. La estrategia empírica adoptada muestra la importancia del desequilibrio acumulado como desencadenante del ajuste externo, en línea con la propuesta de Gourinchas y Rey (2007). Para ello, contrastamos la sostenibilidad externa a través de la relación acumulado-flujo entre las variables que representan las relaciones externas de una economía abierta utilizando varios tipos de contrastes de cointegración y multicointegración. Los resultados obtenidos apuntan hacia la sostenibilidad en sentido débil en el análisis de los flujos, mientras que desde el punto de vista del enfoque acumulado-flujo se concluye que cuatro países mostrarían sostenibilidad durante parte del período investigado tras realizar ajustes. Entre estos países se encuentran tanto economías no europeas, como Nueva Zelanda y Suiza, como miembros de la zona euro, especialmente aquellos con acceso más restringido a la financiación en los mercados internacionales.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración," Working Papers 2112, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2112
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cuenta corriente; saldo activos exteriores; cambios estructurales; multicointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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