IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v68y2006i1p159-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects

Author

Listed:
  • Nason, James M.
  • Rogers, John H.

Abstract

Testable implications of the basic intertemporal model of current account determination are almost always rejected by the data. We confirm these rejections for a sample of post-war Canadian data, then account for them by calibrating and simulating a small open economy, real business cycle model. Bayesian Monte Carlo experiments reveal that several of the "usual suspects", in particular the costs of risk premia and shocks to fiscal policy and the world real interest rate, are important sources of the rejections observed in the data, while other suspects are unimportant.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:68:y:2006:i:1:p:159-187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022-1996(05)00036-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813225343_0010 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 351-374.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-185.
    4. Reuven Glick & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    6. Gary Chamberlain & Charles A. Wilson, 2000. "Optimal Intertemporal Consumption Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 365-395, July.
    7. William A. Brock, 1982. "Asset Prices in a Production Economy," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Paper Series 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    11. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-128, January.
    12. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-139, September.
    13. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    14. Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Defining Moment: A Review Essay," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 178-185, February.
    15. Hercowitz, Zvi, 1986. "The real interest rate and aggregate supply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, September.
    16. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    17. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    18. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1986. "Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 197-224, March.
    19. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1998. "The international transmission of economic fluctuations:: Effects of U.S. business cycles on the Canadian economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 257-287.
    20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    21. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Investment and the current account in the short run and the long run," International Finance Discussion Papers 647, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Paul R. Bergin & Steven M. Sheffrin, 2017. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 10, pages 287-316 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    24. King, Gary & Roberts, Margaret E., 2015. "How Robust Standard Errors Expose Methodological Problems They Do Not Fix, and What to Do About It," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, pages 159-179.
    25. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    26. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, pages 745-775.
    29. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    30. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June.
    31. Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Testing a present-value model of the current account: Evidence from US and Canadian time series," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 414-430, October.
    32. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-436, June.
    33. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    34. Nason, James M & Rogers, John H, 2002. "Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 967-986, November.
    35. John Geweke, 1999. "Computational Experiments and Reality," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 401, Society for Computational Economics.
    36. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Mendoza, Enrique G & Tesar, Linda L, 1998. "The International Ramifications of Tax Reforms: Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 226-245, March.
    38. Bean, Charles R, 1986. "The Terms of Trade, Labour Supply and the Current Account," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(380a), pages 38-46, Supplemen.
    39. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 237-253.
    40. Canova, Fabio, 1995. "Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 477-501, May.
    41. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 237-253.
    42. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1991. "Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 480-505, September.
    43. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    44. Kevin Clinton, 1998. "Canada-U.S. long-term interest differentials in the 1990s," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Spring), pages 17-38.
    45. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 1997. "Sources of Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 97/146, International Monetary Fund.
    46. DeJong, David N & Ingram, Beth Fisher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
    47. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 3-34.
    48. Zadrozny, Peter A., 1998. "An eigenvalue method of undetermined coefficients for solving linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1353-1373, August.
    49. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:68:y:2006:i:1:p:159-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.