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Current account dynamics and the real exchange rate: Disentangling the evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Matthieu Bussiere

    (Banque de France)

  • Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

We study the main shocks driving current account fluctuations for the G6 economies. Our theoretical framework features a standard two-goods inter-temporal model, which is specifically designed to uncover the role of permanent and temporary output shocks and the relation between the real exchange rate and the current account. We build a SVAR model including the world real interest rate, net output, the real exchange rate, and the current account and identify four structural shocks. Our results suggest four main conclusions: i) there is substantial support for the two-good intertemporal model with time-varying interest rate, since both external supply and preference shocks account for an important proportion of current account fluctuations; ii) temporary domestic shocks account for a large proportion of current account fluctuations, but the excess response of the current account is less pronounced than in previous studies; iii) our results alleviate the previous puzzle in the literature that a shock that explains little about net output changes can explain a large proportion of current account changes; iv) the nature of the shock matters to shape the relationship between the current account and the real exchange rate, which explains why is it difficult to understand the role of the real exchange rate for current account fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Bussiere & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2017. "Current account dynamics and the real exchange rate: Disentangling the evidence," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  • Handle: RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2017_06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amadou Woury Diallo, 2020. "Causes of Current Account Fluctuations in West African Monetary Union," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 46-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; real exchange rate; two-good intertemporal model; SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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