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Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies

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  • Pietro Cova
  • Massimiliano Pisani
  • Nicoletta Batini
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global trade imbalances. Simulation results based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, and using the new EU KLEMS database, indicate that TFP developments in these economies can account for a significant fraction of the deterioration in the U.S. trade balance since 1998, as well as for some of the surpluses in the euro area and Japan. Differences in TFP developments across sectors can also partially explain the evolution of the real effective value of the U.S. dollar during this period. These results highlight the importance of focusing on productivity developments in the nontradable sector of these large, relatively closed economies to understand the evolution of their trade balance and real exchange rate. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 312–325. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.5; published online 22 April 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:2:p:312-325
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 448-471, May.
    2. Emmanuelle Faure & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon, 2022. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," Working Papers 2022-12, CEPII research center.
    3. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 677-708, November.
    4. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 718-727, September.
    5. Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Fiscal Stimulus," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1983, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    7. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, September.
    8. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    9. Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2011. "Growth Shocks and Portfolio Flows," Working Papers 11-02, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    10. Lin, Winston T. & Chiang, Chung-Yean, 2011. "The impacts of country characteristics upon the value of information technology as measured by productive efficiency," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 13-33, July.
    11. Luis Servén & Ha Nguyen, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 191-219, August.
    12. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus," Research Department Publications 4689, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Valérie Mignon & Carl Grekou & Emmanuelle Faure, 2023. "Current account balances’ divergence in the euro area: an appraisal of the underlying forces," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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