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Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus

Listed author(s):
  • Pietro Cova
  • Massimiliano Pisani
  • Alessandro Rebucci

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in China’s domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances.

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File URL: http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-211&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-211.pdf
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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4689.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4689
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  1. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Papa N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The domestic and global impact of Japan’s policies for growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Benjamin Hunt & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The US Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 399-434, December.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Michael Kumhof & Susanna Mursula & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits," IMF Working Papers 09/255, International Monetary Fund.
  5. N'Diaye, Papa & Zhang, Ping & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "Structural reform, intra-regional trade, and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific--Perspectives from a new multi-region model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 20-36, February.
  6. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, 09.
  7. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
  8. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
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