IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulp/sbbeta/2011-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan

Author

Listed:
  • Meixing Dai

Abstract

Most Western economists and policymakers agree that the Yuan is significantly undervalued and push for its quick nominal revaluation. This paper defends that many domestic and foreign factors could be responsible for the Yuan’s undervaluation, and the People’s bank of China (PBC) cannot optimally invest growing foreign exchange reserves. It provides a theoretical framework to discuss the optimal strategy associating a gradual nominal revaluation of the Yuan with higher inflation, and structural and macroeconomic policies to bring the real exchange rate to its equilibrium level. This strategy allows absorbing external imbalances while laying down the foundation for China’s long-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Meixing Dai, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," Working Papers of BETA 2011-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2011-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2011/2011-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, 2007. "Opening China's Capital Account: Modeling the Capital Flow Response," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    4. Thierry Burger-Helmchen & Laurence Frank, 2011. "La création de rentes : une approche par les compétences et capacités dynamiques," Innovations, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 89-111.
    5. Pierre Dehez & Daniela Tellone, 2013. "Data Games: Sharing Public Goods with Exclusion," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 15(4), pages 654-673, August.
    6. Xiaohui Liu & Conglai Fan, 2010. "The Model and Empirical Estimation of the Optimal Flexibility of RMB Exchange-Rate Regime: A Study Based on the Price-Stabilization," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 187-209, June.
    7. Pingfan Hong & Rob Vos & Keping Yao, 2008. "How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 35-50.
    8. Huang, Haizhou & Wang, Shuilin, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes: China's experience and choices," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 336-342.
    9. Wing Thye Woo, 2006. "The Structural Nature of Internal and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 471-494.
    11. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Tatom John A, 2007. "The US-China Currency Dispute: Is a Rise in the Yuan Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2011. "The End of Chimerica," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, April.
    15. Nicholas Lardy & Patrick Douglass, 2011. "Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi," Working Paper Series WP11-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    16. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, June.
    17. Xiaohui Liu & Jing Zhang, 2009. "RMB Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank Exchange Market Intervention," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 75-92.
    18. Chao Zhu, 2010. "Measuring Net Foreign Assets: The Case of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(5), pages 90-104.
    19. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
    20. Heiner Flassbeck & Massimiliano La Marca, 2009. "Currency speculation, domestic and international monetary systems: reforming China's and the global financial architecture," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-258.
    21. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    22. Kazuo Ueda, 2010. "Japan's Bubble, America's Bubble and China's Bubble," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-774, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    23. XU, Yingfeng, 2009. "Relevant international experience of real exchange rate adjustment for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 440-451, September.
    24. Zhigang Huang, 2010. "Monetary policy and trade imbalance adjustment," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 269-292.
    25. Yongzhong Wang, 2010. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 106-124.
    26. Yongnian Zheng & Jingtao Yi, 2007. "China's Rapid Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 14-25.
    27. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    28. Qianbing Chen, 2009. "Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17.
    29. Yue Ma & Huayu Sun, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Renminbi Revaluation Pressure," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 19-36.
    30. Tao Peng & Minsoo Lee & Christopher Gan, 2008. "Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-66.
    31. Yi Wen, 2011. "Making sense of China’s excessive foreign reserves," Working Papers 2011-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. Pierre Dehez & Daniela Tellone, 2013. "Data Games: Sharing Public Goods with Exclusion," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 15(4), pages 654-673, August.
    33. Heikki Oksanen, 2010. "Pegging the Renminbi to a Basket - Facts, Prospects and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 3254, CESifo Group Munich.
    34. repec:wsi:igtrxx:v:13:y:2011:i:02:n:s0219198911002915 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Papa M N'Diaye, 2010. "Transforming China; Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s," IMF Working Papers 10/284, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
    37. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
    38. Miaojie Yu, 2010. "Does Appreciation of the RMB Decrease Imports to the U.S. from China?," Trade Working Papers 22040, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    39. Oberpriller Christian M. & Sauer Beate & Sell Friedrich L., 2008. "The Undervaluation of the Yuan Dispute: Is a Repetition of Germany's Experience in 1969 Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable? A Comment and Reply to John A. Tatom," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    40. Das, Dilip K., 2009. "The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 570-579, September.
    41. Yung Chul Park, 2010. "RMB Internationalization and Its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21.
    42. Xiaohui Liu & Conglai Fan, 2010. "The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange-rate regime: A study based on the price-stabilization," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 187-209, June.
    43. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September.
    44. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
    45. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    46. Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
    47. Hongyi Chen & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2009. "Renminbi as an International Currency: Potential and Policy Considerations," Working Papers 182009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    48. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
    49. Xi Chen, 2011. "Increasing Returns to Scale in U.S. manufacturing industries: evidence from direct and reverse regression," Working Papers of BETA 2011-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    50. Tatom, John, 2007. "China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?," MPRA Paper 5366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Peijie Wang, 2010. "A Triangular Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustments - The case of RMB, the US dollar and the euro," Working Papers 2010-FIN-01, IESEG School of Management.
    52. Jie Sun, 2010. "Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform: Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 19-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real revaluation; Yuan; Renminbi (RMB); foreign exchange reserves; external imbalance; macroeconomic adjustment measures.;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2011-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bestrfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.