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A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Schnabl
  • Christian Danne

Abstract

Few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. The econometric estimations allow for regime shifts in the impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy. The results show that the exchange rate had a substantial impact on Japanese monetary policy in periods of appreciation. This implies rising uncertainty and that repeated attempts to soften the appreciation pressure by interest rate cuts have led Japan into the liquidity trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2007. "A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2051, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2051
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William R. Cline, 2005. "The Case for a New Plaza Agreement," Policy Briefs PB05-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    6. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    7. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, March.
    8. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2005.
    9. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, March.
    10. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten [Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]," MPRA Paper 4019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    15. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    16. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
    17. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Four Reasons Why The EXIT Will Fail
      by Mario Rizzo in Think Markets on 2009-11-10 08:46:02

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 382-403, March.
    3. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2013. "Did the Fed and ECB react asymmetrically with respect to asset market developments?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 197-211.
    4. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    5. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ziegler, Christina, 2012. "Monetary policy under alternative exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 104, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    7. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Sophia Latsos & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 261-280, April.
    9. Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa & Alkhater, Khalid Rashid & Basher, Syed Abul, 2014. "Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 330-352.
    10. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "Fear of depression - Asymmetric monetary policy with respect to asset markets," MPRA Paper 17522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten [Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]," MPRA Paper 4019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    14. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yen; Yuan; Japan; China; monetary policy; exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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