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China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?

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  • Ronald McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth. However, linked to US low interest rates, Chinese sterilization policies and potentially subsidized capital allocation in China the real yuan/dollar rate is undervalued. This has caused—both in China and the United States— structural distortions and threatens to undermine global growth and stability. We propose Sino-American policy coordination to escape from the policy dilemma, which continues to drive global imbalances.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:6:p:667-693
    DOI: j.1467-9701.2011.01416.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01416.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    2. Schnabl, Gunther & Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Reverse causality in global current accounts," Working Paper Series 1208, European Central Bank.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
    7. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, EconWPA, revised 16 Feb 2005.
    8. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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