IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v26y2003i3p339-363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Author

Listed:
  • Rishi Goyal
  • Ronald McKinnon

Abstract

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:3:p:339-363
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9701.00526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00526
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-9701.00526?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
    2. Masaaki Shirakawa, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under the Zero Interest Rate Constraint and Balance Sheet Adjustment," Bank of Japan Research Papers 2001-05, Bank of Japan.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 2001. "The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 279-315, March.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Masaaki Shirakawa, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under the Zero Interest Rate Constraint and Balance Sheet Adjustment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 463-489.
    6. repec:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:463-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    8. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    9. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1990. "On the Equilibrium Yen-Dollar Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 576-583, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gary R. Saxonhouse & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Japan's Lost Decade: Origins, Consequences, and Prospects For Recovery," Working Papers 484, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Tony Yates, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 427-481, July.
    4. Mauro Boianovsky, 2004. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: From Hicks to Krugman," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 92-126, Supplemen.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    7. Koichi Hamada & Asahi Noguchi, 2005. "The Role of Preconceived Ideas in Macroeconomic Policy: Japan's Experiences in the Two Deflationary Periods," Working Papers 908, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    9. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
    10. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    11. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    12. Manfred Gärtner & Florian Jung, 2009. "The macroeconomics of financial crises: How risk premiums, liquidity traps and perfect traps affect policy options," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-15, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    13. Alan G. Ahearne & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steven Scott MacDonald, 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Guido Tabellini, 2014. "Inflation Targets Reconsidered: Comments on Paul Krugman," Working Papers 525, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    16. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "The case for price level or inflation targeting--What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-291, August.
    17. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    18. R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2006. "Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 324-344, June.
    19. Nakajima, Tomoyuki, 2008. "Liquidity trap and optimal monetary policy in open economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:3:p:339-363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.