IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role

  • Ronald McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

August 2002 Since the early 1980s, the smaller East Asian economies have experienced a synchronized business cycle. Before the Asian crisis of 1997-98, they pegged their exchange rates to the US dollar. Post crisis, we show that they have resumed dollar pegging on a high frequency, i.e., day-to-day, basis, with indications of a possible return to pegging at lower frequencies as well. The joint exchange rate stabilization of their currencies against the dollar reduces payments risk and strengthens trade linkages in the region. However, it has also made East Asian economies more sensitive to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate. Sudden yen depreciation slows regional economic growth, and yen appreciation accelerates it. Against this, China’s macroeconomic and exchange rate policies have been a critically important stabilizing influence. Because Japan’s own economic slump can also be linked to the fluctuating yen/dollar exchange rate, and any deep depreciation of the yen would be economically disastrous for the whole East Asian region, we conclude that East Asia is a natural dollar zone that Japan should consider joining. Working Papers Index

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/workp/swp02010.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02010.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:02010
Contact details of provider: Postal: Ralph Landau Economics Building, Stanford, CA 94305-6072
Phone: (650)-725-3266
Fax: (650)-725-5702
Web page: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/econ/workp/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  2. Leonardo Hernández & Peter Montiel, 2001. "Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the "Hollow Middle"?," Center for Development Economics 167, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Froot, Kenneth A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-217, November.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  6. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
  7. Okina, Kunio, 1999. "Monetary Policy under Zero Inflation: A Response to Criticisms and Questions Regarding Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 157-182, December.
  8. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "After the Crisis, The East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging," Working Papers 042001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. R. I. McKinnon, 2000. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life After Death?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 31-82, 02.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1, June.
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  17. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 2000. "Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2502, The World Bank.
  18. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, 01.
  19. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and Fall in Bank Lending," Working Papers 02006, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  20. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  21. Kiyotaka Sato, 1999. "The International Use of the Japanese Yen: The Case of Japan's Trade with East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 547-584, 06.
  22. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:02010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.