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Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia

  • Kawai, Masahiro
  • Akiyama, Shigeru

The authors examine the implications of the East Asian currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in the region's emerging market economies. They focus on the roles of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro in the emerging East Asian economies'exchange rate policies. They claim that these economies are particularly susceptible to large exchange rate fluctuations because they have been pursuing financial deregulation, opening markets, and liberalizing capital accounts, and becausethey face increased risk of sudden capital flow reversals, with attendant instability in their financial system and foreign exchange market. The authors find that the dollar's role as the dominant anchor currency in East Asia was reduced during the recent currency crisis but has become prominent again since late 1998. It is too early for conclusions, but the economies seem likely to maintain more flexible exchange rate arrangements, at least officially. At the same time, these economies presumably will continue to prefer to maintain exchange rate stability without fixed rate commitments. They are better off choosing a balanced currency basket system in which the yen and the euro play a more important role than before. The ASEAN countries have a special incentive to avoid harmful fluctuations in exchange rates within the region, which could suddenly alter their international price competitiveness and make prospective free trade agreements unsuitable. So they may stabilize their exchange rates against similar currency baskets, to ensure intraregional exchange rate stability.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2502.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2502
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  1. Peter M. Garber, 1996. "The Use of the Yen as a Reserve Currency," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, December.
  2. Lane, P & Honohan, P, 1999. "Pegging To The Dollar And The Euro," Trinity Economics Papers 996, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Paul R. Masson & Bart Turtelboom, 1997. "Characteristics of the Euro, the Demand for Reserves, and Policy Coordination Under EMU," IMF Working Papers 97/58, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ronald McKinnon, . "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death?," Working Papers 99017, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
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  9. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  10. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 1998. "The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 334-387, December.
  11. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, June.
  12. Yusuru Ozeki & George S. Tavlas, 1992. "The Internationalization of Currencies; An Appraisal of the Japanese Yen," IMF Occasional Papers 90, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-506, December.
  17. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1, 07.
  18. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN," CEPR Discussion Papers 2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Is There a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-025, University of California at Berkeley.
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