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The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

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  • Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
  • Ms. Carmen Reinhart

Abstract

The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity prices during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper extends that framework in two important directions: First, it incorporates commodity supply in the analysis, capturing the impact on prices of the sharp increase in commodity exports of developing countries during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Second, we take a broader view of “world” demand that extends beyond the industrial countries and includes output developments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The empirical results support these extensions, as both the fit of the model improves substantially and, more importantly, its ability to forecast increases markedly.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Ms. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 1994/009, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/009
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    1. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; commodity; price; constructed commodity supply index; commodity market; world commodity supply; commodity export; commodity Research Bureau; Commodity prices; Real exchange rates; Commodity markets; Industrial production; Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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