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Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices

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Listed author(s):
  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

The role of the international commodity market in transmzttmg disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the commodity, export differentiated manufactured goods, and hold the outstanding debt of the commodity exporter. In this setting the impact of changes infiscal policy, commodity supplies, and the real interest rate are assessed. Particular attention is paid to the responses of the real exchange rate, commodity prices, and the international distribution of debt to the various shocks.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8197/1/MPRA_paper_8197.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8197.

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Date of creation: 1991
Publication status: Published in IMF Staff Papers 3.38(1991): pp. 506-524
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8197
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Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets," NBER Chapters,in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 197-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-1161, December.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Eduardo R. Borensztein, 1988. "Debt and Conditionality under Endogenous Terms of Trade Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 686-713, December.
  4. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
  7. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
  8. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "The real exchange rate, the capital stock, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1747-1767, November.
  9. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-415, August.
  10. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-217, May.
  11. Lloyd A. Metzler, 1949. "Tariffs, the Terms of Trade, and the Distribution of National Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57, pages 1-1.
  12. Guidotti, Pablo E. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1992. "Macroeconomic interdependence under capital controls : A two-country model of dual exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 353-367, May.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
  14. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747 Elsevier.
  15. Jacob A. Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1984. "Fiscal Policies, Debt, and International Economic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen, 1988. "Commodity markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 13411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
  2. Hong Liang & John T. Cuddington, 2000. "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 00/208, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
  4. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
  7. Baffes,John & Etienne,Xiaoli Liao, 2015. "Analyzing food price trends in the context of Engel?s law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7424, The World Bank.
  8. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Néstor Adrián le Clech, 2013. "Determinantes del precio internacional de la soja," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
  11. Webber, Anthony G, 1997. "Australian Commodity Export Pass-through and Feedback Causality from Commodity Prices to the Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(68), pages 55-68, June.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana Rocío González, 2012. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 712, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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