IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/13411.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

The "engine of growth" argument holds that an economic expansion in a large country increases the growth of its trading partners. Growth in developing countries is routinely linked to growth patterns in the Industrial economies. This paper examines the role of commodity markets in transmitting disturbances internationally and finds that contrary to the implications of the "engine of growth" argument, a fiscal-induced expansion in a large commodity-importing country could either increase or decrease growth in the developing commodity-exporting country, and unambiguously reduces output in the second commodity-importing country.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen, 1988. "Commodity markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 13411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13411
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13411/3/MPRA_paper_13411.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willem Buiter, 1987. "Fiscal Policy in Open, Interdependent Economies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), Economic Policy in Theory and Practice, chapter 3, pages 101-144, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-1161, December.
    3. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "The International Transmission and Effects of Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 330-335, May.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    5. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
    7. Mohsin S. Khan & Peter J. Montiel, 1987. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Small, Primary-Exporting Country," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 681-710, December.
    8. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-415, August.
    9. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-217, May.
    10. Guidotti, Pablo E. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1992. "Macroeconomic interdependence under capital controls : A two-country model of dual exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 353-367, May.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    13. Mr. Mohsin S. Khan & Mr. Morris Goldstein, 1982. "Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-Oil Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 1982/005, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 461-480, November.
    16. Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 197-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Joshua Aizenman & Eduardo R. Borensztein, 1988. "Debt and Conditionality under Endogenous Terms of Trade Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 686-713, December.
    18. Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
    19. World Bank, 1989. "World Development Report 1989," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 5972, April.
    20. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    21. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "The real exchange rate, the capital stock, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1747-1767, November.
    22. Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Lloyd A. Metzler, 1949. "Tariffs, the Terms of Trade, and the Distribution of National Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 1-1.
    24. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    25. Jacob A. Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1984. "Fiscal Policies, Debt, and International Economic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), 1987. "Economic Policy in Theory and Practice," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18584-9, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    3. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    4. Cuddington, John T. & Liang, Hong, "undated". "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," WIDER Working Papers 295505, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.
    6. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
    7. John Baffes & Xiaoli L. Etienne, 2016. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 688-713.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    9. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    11. John Baffes & Damir Cosic, 2014. "Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18996.
    12. Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Chavarro-Sanchez, Ximena & González-Molano, Eliana Rocío, 2013. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 12, pages 487-532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    15. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    16. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru, 2024. "Understanding the role of China's factors in international commodity price fluctuations: A perspective of monetary-fiscal policy interaction," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1464-1483.
    17. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 4734, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Néstor Adrián le Clech, 2013. "Determinantes del precio internacional de la soja," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    19. Webber, Anthony G, 1997. "Australian Commodity Export Pass-through and Feedback Causality from Commodity Prices to the Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(68), pages 55-68, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    3. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    4. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Currency Crises," CEIS Research Paper 15, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    6. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 1999. "Intergenerational and international welfare leakages of a tariff in a small open economy," CCSO Working Papers 199910, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    7. Serven, Luis, 1995. "Capital goods imports, the real exchange rate and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 79-101, August.
    8. Cuddington, John T. & Liang, Hong, "undated". "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," WIDER Working Papers 295505, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2009. "Keeping up with the ageing Joneses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-64, January.
    10. Erling Steigum & Øystein Thøgersen, 2003. "Borrow and Adjust: Fiscal Policy and Sectoral Adjustment in an Open Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 699-724, May.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    12. Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel & Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Assaf Razin, 1991. "International Vat Harmonization: Economic Effects," IMF Working Papers 1991/022, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Wang, Baotai & Klein, Erwin & Rao, U. L. Gouranga, 1995. "Inflation and stabilization in Argentina," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 391-413, October.
    14. Bandiera, Oriana & Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1999. "Does financial reform increase or reduce savings ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2062, The World Bank.
    15. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The International Macroeconomics of Taxation and the Case Against European Tax Harmonization," NBER Working Papers 8217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:dgr:rugsom:99c19 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John Baffore-Bonnie & Mohammed Khayum, 1997. "Economic Development, Life-Cycle Consumption and Planning Hirizon," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 17-37.
    18. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2000. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 239-263, May.
    19. repec:dgr:rugccs:199910 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
    21. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    22. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices fiscal policy trade exports;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.