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Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation

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  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

Abstract

The analysis focuses on the government budget constraint and the resolution of inconsistent implications of different policy instruments under that constraint. We show how, under floating exchange rates, external shocks or internal structural reforms may cause jumps in inflation and the exchange rate through their impact on the government budget. In order to achieve a sustainable reduction in inflation an exchange rate freeze or crawling peg is shown to require restrictions not only on domestic credit, but also on the rate of increase in interest-bearing public debt. We endogenize regime collapse by introducing rational speculation against the central bank, and show that if an exchange rate freeze collapses, post-collapse inflation will exceed the rate prevailing before the freeze started.

Suggested Citation

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2130
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    Cited by:

    1. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
    2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    4. Daniel, Betty C, 2001. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 969-988, November.
    5. Nina Budina & Sweder Van Wijnbergen, 2001. "Fiscal deficits, monetary reform and inflation stabilization in romania," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 165-194.
    6. Norbert Fiess & Rashmi Shankar, 2005. "Regime-Switching in Exchange Rate Policy and Balance Sheet Effects," Working Papers 2005_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Rocha, Robert & Anand, Ritu, 1989. "Inflation, external debt, and financial sector reform : a quantitative approach to consistent fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 261, The World Bank.
    8. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
    9. Burnside, Craig, 2004. "Currency crises and contingent liabilities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 25-52, January.
    10. Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
    12. Craig Burnside, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Craig Burnside on the Causes and Consequences of Twin Banking-Currency Crises," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), April.
    13. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 17/267, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    16. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico
      [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]
      ," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 309-343, August.
    18. Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.
    19. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados
      [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of
      ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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