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The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice

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  • Homi Kharas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of developing country long-run creditworthiness, focusing on the process of capital accumulation relative to external debt. Creditworthiness depends on the actual capital stock compared with a critical level, representing the gross wealth just sufficient to ensure that interest payments to foreigners never exhaust national output given expected gross inflows and existing outstanding debt. Hence, the probability of rescheduling is linked to debt service-capital, net inflows-capital, investment rates, and income levels. The empirical results, based on a probit analysis of historical rescheduling incidents, are quite robust and supportive of the theoretical framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Homi Kharas, 1984. "The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 415-439.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:99:y:1984:i:3:p:415-439.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gottlieb, Daniel, 1987. "On the Determinants of a Country's Creditworthiness - The Case of Israel: 1971 to 1983," MPRA Paper 3147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
    4. Sule Ozler, 1986. "Valuation of Rescheduled Loans, 1978-1983: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 414, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. M. Kabir Hassan, 2001. "Financial Structure, Creditworthiness and Stock Market Development: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers 0140, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 2001.
    6. Susan K. Schroeder, 2008. "The Underpinnings Of Country Risk Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 498-535, July.
    7. Mariana Felix Teixeira & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Walter Lee Ness, 2008. "Determinant Factors of Brazilian Country Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Specific Country Risk," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 49-67.
    8. Palac-McMiken, Evanor D. Author_Email:, 1993. "An Empirical Investigation of Bankers' Perceptions of Country Creditworthiness," Philippine Journal of Development, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    9. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    10. Esteban Serrano-Monge, 2022. "Inferences from Portfolio Theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis to the Impact of Social Media on Sovereign Debt: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
    12. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    13. Hashmi, Rimsha Karim & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Estimating the Long-Run Creditworthiness of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Epstien, Gerald & Gintis, Herbert, 1989. "International Capital Markets and the Limits of National Economic Policy," WIDER Working Papers 295606, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Huang, Shumin, 1993. "Determinants of country creditworthiness : an empirical investigation, 1980-1989," Research Discussion Papers 1/1993, Bank of Finland.
    16. Huang, Shumin, 1993. "Determinants of country creditworthiness: an empirical investigation, 1980-1989," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/1993, Bank of Finland.
    17. Timur Han Gur, 2001. "A Country Risk Assessment Model and the Asian Crisis," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 1(1), pages 49-68.
    18. Zotteri, Stefania & Franco, Daniele & Balassone, Fabrizio, 2003. "Fiscal rules for sub-national governments: what lessons from EMU countries?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34926, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Hiranya K. Nath, 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    20. John Cooper, 1999. "Artificial neural networks versus multivariate statistics: An application from economics," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 909-921.
    21. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2004. "Lending to developing countries revisited: changing nature of lenders and payment problems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 235-256, September.
    22. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Foreign Debt, Financial Stability, Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 116328, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2022.
    23. Palac-McMiken, Evanor D. Author_Email:, 1995. "Predicting Discounts of Secondary Market Sovereign Debts," Philippine Journal of Development, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    24. Thomas, Scott, 1987. "International Economic Conditions, Trade Policies, Exchange Rates, and Balance of Payments and Their Influence on LDC Growth," 1987 Occasional Paper Series No. 4 197429, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    25. Hentschel, Jesko, 1988. "Non-optimizing growth-cum-debt models and sustainability of indebtedness," Discussion Papers, Series II 44, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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