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Political instability and country risk: new evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob De Haan
  • Clemens Siermann
  • Erna Van Lubek

Abstract

This note presents new estimates of a probit model for the debt rescheduling, using a sample of 65 countries over the period 1984-93. Apart from economic variables, a whole range of indicators for political instability are included in the model as explanatory variables. It turns out, that none is significant with the 'correct' sign. Apparently, a detoriation of the political situation is already reflected in economic aggregates, which suggest that the influence of political factors is discounted in macroeconomic variables as included in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:4:y:1997:i:11:p:703-707
    DOI: 10.1080/758530653
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
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    5. Citron, Joel-Tomas & Nickelsburg, Gerald, 1987. "Country risk and political instability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 385-392, April.
    6. Homi Kharas, 1984. "The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 415-439.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. repec:dgr:rugsom:98c34 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valev, Neven T., 2006. "Institutional uncertainty and the maturity of international loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 780-794, August.
    4. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
    5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Karatas, Bilge, 2013. "Three Sisters: The Interlinkage between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lean Yu & Xinxie Li & Ling Tang & Zongyi Zhang & Gang Kou, 2015. "Social credit: a comprehensive literature review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Valev, Neven T., 2007. "Uncertainty and international debt maturity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 372-386, October.
    8. Nath, Hiranya K., 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    9. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    10. Piotr Wdowinski, 2004. "Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland," CESifo Working Paper Series 1120, CESifo.
    11. Huseyin Ozturk*, 2014. "The origin of bias in sovereign credit ratings: reconciling agency views with institutional quality," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(4), pages 161-188, October-D.

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