Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland
In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE). The individual monthly beta parameters time series are computed as structural regression parameters estimated for daily data in monthly sub-periods in regressions for WIG and WIG20 indexes on individual foreign stock market indexes. The beta risk is an average of monthly individual beta parameters. We put forward a hypothesis that the estimated beta risk depends on monetary and real variables expressing the economic performance of the Polish economy. Hence, we build monetary and real factors models. As explanatory variables of risk, we examine: income, productivity, trade balance, budget deficit, interest rate and the zloty exchange rate. The risk factors are expressed as differentials relative to the world economy for which stands the U.S. economy. According to Fair and Shiller (1990), we test for relative one-period-ahead predictive performance of monetary and real factors models of capital market risk in Poland in the period 1999-2002. We find that monetary variables as exchange rate and interest rate have relatively more power than real variables in explaining the beta market risk in Poland.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen A. Ross, "undated".
"The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
2-73, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Stephen A. Ross, "undated". "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-73, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996.
" The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
- Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & Yew, Kee Ho, 1997. "A new test of the relationship between regulatory change in financial markets and the stability of beta risk of depository institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 197-219, February.
- Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
- Stephen Godfrey & Ramon Espinosa, 1996. "A Practical Approach To Calculating Costs Of Equity For Investments In Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 80-90.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March.
- Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Bracker, Kevin & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 443-471.
- Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-896, September.
- Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
- Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1987. "Risk and Inflation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 89-99, March.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Alexander, Gordon J. & Benson, P. George, 1982. "More on Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 27-36, March.
- Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.